This study investigates the applicability of Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs) in near real-time for the simulation of sub-daily runoff in the Vilcanota River basin, located in the southeastern Andes of Peru. The data from rain gauge stations are used to evaluate the quality of Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM–Early (IMERG-E), Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation– Near Real-Time (GSMaP-NRT), Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method (CMORPH), and HydroEstimator (HE) at the pixel-station level; and these SPPs are used as meteorological inputs for the hourly hydrological modeling. The GR4H model is calibrated with the hydrometric station of the longest record, and model simulations are also verified at one station upstream and two stations downstream of the calibration point. Comparing the sub-daily precipitation data observed, the results show that the IMERG-E ...

Surface water resources in Peru are heterogeneously distributed in three drainage areas (Pacific, Titicaca, and Atlantic), and their quantification is relevant for planning in economic activities such as water supply and agriculture. However, their continuous monitoring at national scale becomes difficult due to the low stream gauges density and short streamflow records. The aim of this work is to generate a database of simulated monthly streamflows at a national scale from January 1981 to December 2016, applying the parsimonious GR2M model in a semi-distributed approach, under a parameter regionalization scheme. For this, 3594 sub-basins (~300 km2) located in the three drainage areas were tested. These sub-basins were first grouped in 14 calibration regions based on a sensitivity analysis of the runoff ratio (RR) and runoff variability (RV) indexes derived from the GR2M outputs. The mod...

This paper aims to develop a national hydrological model using physiographic and climatic characteristics to identify donor and receptor sub-catchments (sub-zones). Therefore, we use the hydrometeorological PISCO dataset (0.1º x 0.1º) to drive a sub-catchment conceptual rainfall-runoff (ARNO/VIC) model and a river-routing (RAPID) model in thousands of river reaches. We identify 43 hydrological zones (with 122 sub-zones) to run the hybrid hydrological modeling framework (ARNO/VIC+RAPID) with previously calibrated and validated parameters with 43 fluviometric stations for 1981–2020. Simulated flow series show a higher performance at daily scale (KGE ≥ 0.75, NSEsqrt ≥ 0.65, MARE ≤ 1, and −25% ≤ PBIAS ≤ 25%) for catchments located at the Pacific coast and the Andes-Amazon transition, and good representation (R≥0.75) of seasonal and interannual variability.

Quantification of the surface water offer is crucial for its management. In Peru, the low spatial density of hydrometric stations makes this task challenging. This work aims to evaluate the hydrological performance of a monthly water balance model in Peru using precipitation and evapotranspiration data from the high-resolution meteorological PISCO dataset, which has been developed by the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (SENAMHI). A regionalization approach based on Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (FAST) of the rainfall-runoff (RR) and runoff variability (RV) indices defined 14 calibration regions nationwide. Next, the GR2M model was used at a semi-distributed scale in 3594 sub-basins and river streams to simulate monthly discharges from January 1981 to March 2020. Model performance was evaluated using the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), square root transferred...

Flood modeling and forecasting are crucial for managing and preparing for extreme flood events, such as those in the Tropical Andes. In this context, assimilating streamflow data is essential. Data Assimilation (DA) seeks to combine errors between forecasting models and discharge measurements through the updating of model states. This study aims to assess the applicability and performance of streamflow DA in a sub-daily forecasting system of the Peruvian Tropical Andes using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter (PF) algorithms. The study was conducted in a data-sparse Andean basin during the period February–March 2022. For this purpose, the lumped GR4H rainfall–runoff model was run forward with 100 ensemble members in four different DA experiments based on IMERG-E and GSMaP-NRT precipitation sources and assimilated real-time hourly discharges at the basin outlet. Ens...

Los humedales de Pisco, esenciales en la lucha contra el cambio climático, enfrentan una creciente vulnerabilidad ante sus efectos. La presente investigación aborda dos aspectos fundamentales. En primer lugar, se evaluó la dinámica climática utilizando datos de cinco estaciones meteorológicas y productos derivados (p. ej., PISCOp), lo que permitió identificar brechas en la información disponible. En segundo lugar, se realizó un análisis exhaustivo de los instrumentos de gestión locales y regionales relevantes para la protección de estos ecosistemas. Los resultados muestran que la degradación de los humedales de Pisco se atribuye principalmente al cambio en el uso de suelo, la contaminación y los impactos del cambio climático, lo que dificulta su gestión adecuada debido a la falta de un inventario integral y preciso. La zona presenta un clima árido, con una temperatura pr...

The assessment of climate change impacts on water resources and flood risk is typically underpinned by hydrological models calibrated and selected based on observed streamflow records. Yet, changes in climate are rarely accounted for when selecting hydrological models, which compromises their ability to robustly represent future changes in catchment hydrology. In this paper, we test a simple framework for selecting an ensemble of calibrated hydrological model structures in catchments where contrasting climatic conditions have been observed. We start by considering 78 model structures produced with the FUSE modular modelling framework and rely on a Pareto scheme to select model structures maximizing model efficiency in both wet and dry periods. The application of this approach in three case study basins in Peru enables the identification of structures with good robustness, but also good p...

EGU General Assembly - EGU2020-12927

Surface water resources in Peru show high spatio-temporal variability, being the prediction of streamflow at ungauged sites, one of the fundamental challenges today. This research presents a methodology for regional parameter estimation at national scale using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools) model, with the goal of estimating the streamflow for three hydrographic regions in Peru: the Pacific, Titicaca and Amazonas. Hydrological models were calibrated using observed discharge data which is sparse and poorly distributed over Peru. In this context, we design a regional parameter estimation following the next steps: i) First, a regionalization of 3394 hydrological response units (HRU) in the whole country were built through Ward’s hierarchical cluster criterion, in which 14 calibration regions were defined. ii) A calibration procedure to obtain the best calibration parameters was ma...

El presente catálogo describe la organización de las actividades de la SEH, considerando en primer lugar las líneas de investigación del SENAMHI que fueron establecidas tomando en cuenta las políticas públicas, luego se considera la definición de la Organización Meteorológica Mundial respecto a que los Servicios Hidrológicos deben desarrollar ciencia aplicada que contribuya con bases sólidas para la hidrología operacional y que esté enmarcado dentro de la cadena de valor Hidrológica. Este catálogo presenta 13 productos desarrollados en el período 2021-2025, cada producto contiene plataforma de visualización web de libre acceso que contribuye a la toma de decisión informada de utilidad para la Gestión de Riesgos de Desastres, Gestión Integrada de los Recursos Hídricos y Medidas de Adaptación frente al Cambio Climático. De estos 13 productos, 4 abarcan todo el territ...

Hydrological hazards related to flash floods (FF) in Peru have caused many economic and human life losses in recent years. In this context, developing complete early warning systems against FF is necessary to cope impacts. For this purpose, hydrological and hydraulic models coupled to numerical weather models (NWM) that provide forecasts are generally used. In this sense, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Peru (SENAMHI) has launched the ANDES initiative (Operational Forecasting System for Flash Floods of SENAMHI in English) to support FF events.