Ponencia "Jueves Científico" promovida y organizada por el SENAMHI

Dengue fever has experienced a global rise in incidence and distribution, largely influenced by climate variability. Nonetheless, the specific climatic thresholds that trigger elevated dengue incidence rates, and the time lag between weather conditions and the case surges remain uncertain. Average weekly climate variables along with weekly dengue incidence rates from 2001 and 2022 were analyzed in districts grouped by its climate zone. A cross-correlation technique was used to determine the time lag between climatic variables and dengue incidence, while a fine-tuned regression tree model was utilized to identify climatic thresholds linked to the incidence of dengue surges.This study identified distinct climatic thresholds that were met within a 20-week window preceding elevated dengue incidence rates in the six climate zones with the highest dengue prevalence in Peru. These insights enab...

Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina. Facultad de Ciencias. Departamento Académico de Ingeniería Ambiental, Física y Meteorología

Introduction. It is generally accepted that respiratory infections are seasonal, but high-frequency periods are rarely identified at the local level in a country with diverse climates. Anticipating the pneumonia season locally can provide a better use of critical resources. Objective. The aim of the study was to examine seasonal variability in monthly deaths due to pneumonia in Peru. Methods. Observational retrospective study using time series analysis to identify periods of high pneumonia mortality in seven cities in Peru. We reviewed administrative reports from the Ministry of Health for pneumonia deaths during 2003-2017. Descriptive statistics were calculated and a time series analysis at a monthly scale was performed on the frequency of deaths due to pneumonia, cumulative rainfall, and maximum and minimum environmental temperatures. Results: 94.4% of pneumonia deaths (N = 166,844) we...

Introduction. It is generally accepted that respiratory infections are seasonal, but high-frequency periods are rarely identified at the local level in a country with diverse climates. Anticipating the pneumonia season locally can provide a better use of critical resources. Objective. The aim of the study was to examine seasonal variability in monthly deaths due to pneumonia in Peru. Methods. Observational retrospective study using time series analysis to identify periods of high pneumonia mortality in seven cities in Peru. We reviewed administrative reports from the Ministry of Health for pneumonia deaths during 2003-2017. Descriptive statistics were calculated and a time series analysis at a monthly scale was performed on the frequency of deaths due to pneumonia, cumulative rainfall, and maximum and minimum environmental temperatures. Results: 94.4% of pneumonia deaths (N = 166,844) we...

The Pantanal biome, at the confluence of Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, is the largest continental wetland on the planet and an invaluable reserve of biodiversity. The exceptional 2020 fire season in Pantanal drew particular attention due to the severe wildfires and the catastrophic natural and socio-economic impacts witnessed within the biome. So far, little progress has been made in order to better understand the influence of climate extremes on fire occurrence in Pantanal. Here, we evaluate how extreme hot conditions, through heatwave events, are related to the occurrence and the exacerbation of fires in this region. A historical analysis using a statistical regression model found that heatwaves during the dry season explained 82% of the interannual variability of burned area during the fire season. In a future perspective, an ensemble of CORDEX-CORE simulations assuming different Repr...

Presenta una gama de 38 climas distribuidos en el vasto territorio nacional, con climas extremos como el de muy lluvioso y cálido todo el año, el desierto cálido y el glaciar. Este documento, es el resultado de un minucioso y detallado trabajo de investigación meteorológica y climática, realizado en forma sistemática a nivel nacional desde el año 2017 al 2020, utilizándose una amplia información pertinente, incluyendo la satelital y la proveniente de diferentes mapas temáticos nacionales digitalizados, sobre ecosistemas y recursos naturales. En este período, se contó con la colaboración de instituciones y expertos nacionales versados en el tema.

Brinda un análisis técnico exhaustivo de los registros diarios de las temperaturas máximas y mínimas del aire y la precipitación, recogidas de las estaciones a nivel nacional tomando como referencia el período de 1981 al 2010 para el cálculo de las normales climáticas. Para ello, se ha tomado en consideración los factores dominantes que controlan el clima en el ámbito nacional, que incluyen sistemas de circulación atmosférica, patrones de la temperatura superficial del mar y corrientes oceánicas, y también factores topográficos, orográficos e hidrográficos locales. Asimismo, el atlas generado se constituye en un documento con información indispensable para el conocimiento de las condiciones climáticas predominantes en cada una de las regiones naturales del Perú, cuyo uso y aplicación es de suma utilidad para las actividades de crecimiento económico y desarrollo pobl...