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1
documento de trabajo
El propósito principal de la presente investigación es analizar la relevancia de los agregados monetarios para la política monetaria como indicadores de la actividad económica real. La principal hipótesis de este trabajo es que los agregados monetarios más líquidos ayudan a predecir el producto real. El análisis empírico combina la descomposición de las series de tiempo usando funciones “wavelet” y la posible existencia de relaciones de cointegración entre dinero, producto y precios. Usando datos recientes para la economía peruana, se encuentra evidencia a favor de la hipótesis planteada. En particular, los resultados sugieren la existencia de co-integración entre series no estacionarias construidas a partir de funciones wavelets. En este contexto, las pruebas de exogeneidad revelan que los agregados monetarios más líquidos son débil y fuertemente exógenos, y por lo...
2
artículo
Publicado 1996
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The article propases a dictum or rule for the methodology of monetary theory modeling. The dictum or rule is that money should not be a primitive concept in monetary theory, but its existence and its value should result from some general equilibrium situation. The article distinguishes, among current monetary models, which ones satisfy the dictum and which ones don't. As an example, it also presents a "pairwise meetings" model that satisfies it.
3
artículo
Publicado 1972
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This paper addresses the monetary controversies linked to the potential change of gold as a financial asset and the implications of adopting a new system comprising a different unit of value. In this sense, the author analyzes the influence of the United States on monetary policy and the changes in the monetary system based on the positioning of other economies in the international community. Since gold plays a predominant role in the monetary system, the absence of this element would have as a consequence the redefinition of other currencies, since they found in gold a common binding value. Likewise, the author states that monetary systems reflect a political and economic reality and the geographical structure of international trade; therefore, the repercussions of changes in international reserves, external debt, prices and employment must be taken into consideration.
4
artículo
Publicado 1972
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This paper addresses the monetary controversies linked to the potential change of gold as a financial asset and the implications of adopting a new system comprising a different unit of value. In this sense, the author analyzes the influence of the United States on monetary policy and the changes in the monetary system based on the positioning of other economies in the international community. Since gold plays a predominant role in the monetary system, the absence of this element would have as a consequence the redefinition of other currencies, since they found in gold a common binding value. Likewise, the author states that monetary systems reflect a political and economic reality and the geographical structure of international trade; therefore, the repercussions of changes in international reserves, external debt, prices and employment must be taken into consideration.
5
artículo
Publicado 2015
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This paper shows how to obtain a short run aggregate supply curve when there are explicit orimplicit contracts. In the same way it is possible to obtain an expectation augmented Phillips curve. Then, a monetary policy is incorporated to the short run aggregate supply curve or to the Phillips curve in order to model the Central Bank reaction when the actual inflation deviates from the target inflation. Then a model with a Central Bank welfare lost function is developed in order to obtain an optimal monetary policy rule which modifies the synthetic version of the Taylor Rule. This model allows making short run comparative static analyses.
6
artículo
Publicado 2015
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This paper shows how to obtain a short run aggregate supply curve when there are explicit orimplicit contracts. In the same way it is possible to obtain an expectation augmented Phillips curve. Then, a monetary policy is incorporated to the short run aggregate supply curve or to the Phillips curve in order to model the Central Bank reaction when the actual inflation deviates from the target inflation. Then a model with a Central Bank welfare lost function is developed in order to obtain an optimal monetary policy rule which modifies the synthetic version of the Taylor Rule. This model allows making short run comparative static analyses.
7
artículo
There is not serious conflict, in principle, between economic growth and equality. The paper arrives to this conclusion after addressing topics like the effects of inflation on growth and economic efficiency, the key features of "good" economic policy, tax policy in developing countries, expenditure side policies designed to achieve greater equality, as well as other issues on poverty; and socio-economic mobility. On this vein, even though governments cannot significantly modify the income distribution of their societies, it is shown that the policies with a greater potential to shift society's Lorenz curve are those of the expenditure side rather than those of tire tax side.
8
artículo
The study involved extending a dynamic general equilibrium neoKeynesian model by considering preferences that exhibit intertemporal nonhomotheticity. Introducing this feature generates a state-dependent intertemporal elasticity of substitution, which induces asymmetric shifts in aggregate demand in response to monetary policy shocks. The effect, in combination with a convex Phillips curve, generates in equilibrium asymmetric responses in output and inflation to monetary policy shocks similar to those observed in the data. In particular, a higher response of both output and inflation to policy shocks exists when economy growth is temporarily high than temporarily low.
9
artículo
The design of monetary policy has been a subject of debate in the specialized literature. Over the last three decades, this literature has moved from questioning the very existence of reserve requirements (RRs) to analyzing and discussing their role as a tool for monetary policy. The large variation in how central banks implement RRs around the world suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal reserve requirement strategy. I survey the main modeling strategies which incorporate RRs in the design of monetary policy. Furthermore, I discuss different modeling approaches in which RRs can affect the banking system, improve monetary policy decisions, and help achieve a central bank’s macroeconomic objectives.
10
artículo
The objective of this research was to analyze the effect of education on monetary poverty in the regions of Peru. As a source of information, the SIRTOD database of the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics was used for the period 2007 to 2016. The study is based on the framework of human capital theory and consumer microeconomic theory. Therefore, the study is considered as hypothetico-deductive. Education was approached through the percentage of the economically active population by educational levels; primary, secondary, non-university education and university education, and poverty by the percentage of the population that have less expenditure than the monetary poverty line. The main hypothesis of the study is that the higher level of education has a positive effect in the reduction of monetary poverty, through the mechanism of productivity and income improvement. The esti...
11
artículo
This article discusses the integration process of the European Union, stressing the financial aspects, and also discusses the need for a single currency as a further step in that process. The analysis of the financial integration evaluates the existence of interest rate parity and convergence. The main result is that both parity and convergence seem to have been achieved, but only for long run interest rates and just recently. The persistence of important differences between short run interest rates could cause some troubles and it would be showing the skepticism of the single currency successful. Also, the article carries out that the implementation of the single currency will reduce the autonomy of the fiscal policy, and mainly the tax policy, something that appears unwanted by the authorities of the country members of the European Union that have avoided to establish agreements about ...
12
artículo
Publicado 1984
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In contrast to classical international law, which limited itself to the maintenance of international peace and security as its fundamental object, contemporary international law emphasises that the achievement of this object implies economic growth. Thus, the Principle of Sovereign Equality of States is limited to its meaning of legal equality, while existing economic and social inequality is recognised, and rules are established in favour of the special category of ‘developing countries’. In addition to the Principle of the Prohibition of the Use of Force or Threat of Force, the Principle of Cooperation is added, which obliges states to cooperate with each other to achieve economic growth, particularly in developing countries. The author proposes a study of the validity of the Principle of Cooperation in the international monetary sphere. To this end, he studies three aspects of the...
13
documento de trabajo
Publicado 2013
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La política monetaria en los Estados Unidos no es la misma desde la crisis internacional de 2008-2009. Con la crisis, debido a que la tasa de interés de los fondos federales- el instrumento convencional de política monetaria- se redujo hasta casi cero, la Reserva Federal (FED) tuvo que recurrir a dos instrumentos no convencionales. En primer lugar, el anuncio sobre la trayectoria futura de la tasa de interés de corto plazo. En segundo lugar, la intervención directa en el mercado de bonos de largo plazo. El objetivo de este artículo es extender modelo IS-LM creado por Hicks (1937), para incorporar las innovaciones de la política monetaria americana. Este modelo actualizado, a diferencia de la IS-LM, considera que la FED administra la tasa de interés de corto plazo, no la oferta monetaria, la cual es endógena. Por otro lado, para poder tratar la flexibilización cuantitativa, se a...
14
capítulo de libro
This chapter models an emerging economy with financial dollarization features within an optimizing, stochastic general equilibrium setup. One key result in this framework is that unexpected nominal exchange rate fluctuations are positively correlated with the probability of default by borrowing firms and turn out to be a relevant driver of economic activity. In particular, the sign of the unexpected depreciation is positively correlated to the real value of assets and negatively correlated to aggregate consumption. This result supports the idea that unexpected increases in the exchange rate are contractionary, and not expansionary, when dollarization and agency costs in the financial sector are considered.
15
artículo
This article qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the effects of the control of the reference interest rate and of the monetary aggregates (by the Central Reserve Bank) on the productive structure and the processes of coordination and economic interaction of society. It is verified quantitatively that the relation low interest rate of reference-high level of monetary aggregates and Cyclical Behavior of the Gross Domestic Product defines the phases of recovery and boom of the productive sectors more intensive in time and capital; and the phases of slowdown and recession of these productive sectors. Clasificación JEL: E. Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, E 52 Monetary Policy.
16
artículo
International Monetary System: Past, Present and Future is an extraordinary book in which, through numerous scientific articles (papers) that were complied and edited by Dr. Debesh Bhowmik, the important issue of the international monetary system is approached from a broad perspective in its economic, historical, technological, regional and even political aspect in relation to relevant topics such as economic crisis, development, international trade and theoretical discussions about the orthodox and heterodox approach.
17
artículo
Publicado 1984
Enlace
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In contrast to classical international law, which limited itself to the maintenance of international peace and security as its fundamental object, contemporary international law emphasises that the achievement of this object implies economic growth. Thus, the Principle of Sovereign Equality of States is limited to its meaning of legal equality, while existing economic and social inequality is recognised, and rules are established in favour of the special category of ‘developing countries’. In addition to the Principle of the Prohibition of the Use of Force or Threat of Force, the Principle of Cooperation is added, which obliges states to cooperate with each other to achieve economic growth, particularly in developing countries. The author proposes a study of the validity of the Principle of Cooperation in the international monetary sphere. To this end, he studies three aspects of the...
18
documento de trabajo
We investigate the evolution of the impact of monetary policy (MP) shocks in Peru in 1996Q1-2018Q2 using a set of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR- SV), as proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018). The main results are: (i) the volatilities, intercepts, and contemporaneous coe cients change more gradually than VAR coe cients over time; (ii) the volatility of MP shocks falls from 4% to 0.3% on average during the In ation Targeting (IT) regime; (iii) in the long run, a contractionary MP shock decreases both gross domestic product (GDP) growth and in ation by 0.28% and 0.1%, respectively; (iv) the interest rate reacts faster to aggregate supply shocks than to both aggregate demand shocks and exchange rate shocks; (v) under the pre-IT regime, MP shocks explain almost 20%, 10%, and 85% of the uncertainty in GDP growth, in ation, and the inte...
19
tesis de grado
We investigate the evolution of the impact of monetary policy (MP) shocks in Peru in 1996Q1-2018Q2 using a set of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV), as proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018). The main results are: (i) the volatilities, intercepts, and contemporaneous coefficients change more gradually than VAR coefficients over time; (ii) the volatility of MP shocks falls from 4% to 0.3% on average during the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime; (iii) in the long run, a contractionary MP shock decreases both gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation by 0.28% and 0.1%, respectively; (iv) the interest rate reacts faster to aggregate supply shocks than to both aggregate demand shocks and exchange rate shocks; (v) under the pre-IT regime, MP shocks explain almost 20%, 10%, and 85% of the uncertainty in GDP growth, inflation, and th...
20
artículo
Publicado 2022
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Motivated by the empirical evidence of the effects of unanticipated nominal interest rate increases on the evolution of household inequality in Mexico, which highlight the importance of insurance mechanisms to deal with idiosyncratic risks, the paper uses a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model to analyze the relationship between monetary policy and household inequality. The model is able to capture the main features that characterise both the business cycle dynamics, as well as the distribution of income and wealth. Results indicate that heterogeneity affects the transmission of monetary policy, and that the design of monetary policy has important distributive effects.
