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documento de trabajo
We investigate the evolution of the impact of monetary policy (MP) shocks in Peru in 1996Q1-2018Q2 using a set of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR- SV), as proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018). The main results are: (i) the volatilities, intercepts, and contemporaneous coe cients change more gradually than VAR coe cients over time; (ii) the volatility of MP shocks falls from 4% to 0.3% on average during the In ation Targeting (IT) regime; (iii) in the long run, a contractionary MP shock decreases both gross domestic product (GDP) growth and in ation by 0.28% and 0.1%, respectively; (iv) the interest rate reacts faster to aggregate supply shocks than to both aggregate demand shocks and exchange rate shocks; (v) under the pre-IT regime, MP shocks explain almost 20%, 10%, and 85% of the uncertainty in GDP growth, in ation, and the inte...
2
tesis de grado
We investigate the evolution of the impact of monetary policy (MP) shocks in Peru in 1996Q1-2018Q2 using a set of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV), as proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018). The main results are: (i) the volatilities, intercepts, and contemporaneous coefficients change more gradually than VAR coefficients over time; (ii) the volatility of MP shocks falls from 4% to 0.3% on average during the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime; (iii) in the long run, a contractionary MP shock decreases both gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation by 0.28% and 0.1%, respectively; (iv) the interest rate reacts faster to aggregate supply shocks than to both aggregate demand shocks and exchange rate shocks; (v) under the pre-IT regime, MP shocks explain almost 20%, 10%, and 85% of the uncertainty in GDP growth, inflation, and th...
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