1
objeto de conferencia
Publicado 2020
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In the southern Peruvian Andes, climatic threats such as water scarcity or frost pose major challenges for agriculture. Such events may result in severe yield losses threatening the livelihood of smallholder farmers due to missing adaptive and coping strategies. Knowledge on climate variability and change, on the current state of the climate, as well as short- to midrange predictions potentially improve the farmers’ risk management. However, such knowledge is only partly available and often does not reach rural communities. Climandes, a pilot project of the Global Framework for Climate Services, tackled these shortcomings through the enhancement of climatological observations, the production of gridded datasets using satellite and station observations, the verification of seasonal forecasts to determine their usefulness for small-scale applications, and through the establishment of com...
2
artículo
Seasonal predictions have a great socioeconomic potential if they are reliable and skillful. In this study, we assess the prediction performance of SEAS5, version 5 of the seasonal prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), over South America against homogenized station data. For temperature, we find the highest prediction performances in the tropics during austral summer, where the probability that the predictions correctly discriminate different observed outcomes is 70%. In regions lying to the east of the Andes, the predictions of maximum and minimum temperature still exhibit considerable performance, while farther to the south in Chile and Argentina the temperature prediction performance is low. Generally, the prediction performance of minimum temperature is slightly lower than for maximum temperature. The prediction performance of precipitat...
3
artículo
Publicado 2020
Enlace
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En este estudio presentamos el enfoque y los principales resultados del proyecto Climandes.
