1
artículo
Publicado 2010
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Observatorio Andino (OA) was established in 2008 by The Centro de Modelado Científico (CMC) in collaboration with Climate information applied to agricultural risk management in the Andean countries (CIIFEN). The OA main goal is to provide a collaborative network that ultimately increases the efficiency of the decision-making processes, especially in terms of getting more accurate forecasts and exchanging experiences on data, information, and scientific products, all of which is done with a standardized methodology and a Web-sharing service. The Observatorio Andino follows a three level hierarchical model execution flux, with the same approach for both short-term and seasonal products. In order to facilitate the validation process, a spatial map for each time slice of interest involving the differences and/or the anomaly correlations between model output and observations, is generated. T...
2
documento de trabajo
Publicado 2017
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Los Relámpagos del Catatumbo son un conjunto de tormentas eléctricas que ocurren en promedio unas 260 noches al año en toda la Cuenca del Lago de Maracaibo (Figura 1), pero especialmente al suroeste del Lago (Muñoz y Díaz-Lobatón, 2011; Muñoz et al., 2016). Se forman por una interacción entre agentes locales, regionales y globales, que se ponen de acuerdo para hacer que este fenómeno suceda en el sitio y en los tiempos en que ocurre. Varios estudios (Albrecht et al., 2009; Muñoz y DíazLobatón, 2011; Bürgesser et al., 2012) indican que el “epicentro” más importante en términos de descargas está cerca de la desembocadura del río Catatumbo en el Lago de Maracaibo (Figura 1). Un segundo epicentro, con menor actividad que el primero, se ubica cerca de la frontera colombo-venezolana (aproximadamente en coordenadas 9° Norte y 73° Oeste, ver Figura 1).
3
artículo
Publicado 2018
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The Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRFChem) model was used to develop an operational air quality forecast system for the Metropolitan Area of Lima-Callao (MALC), Peru, that is affected by high particulate matter concentrations episodes. In this work, we describe the implementation of an operational air quality-forecasting platform to be used in the elaboration of public policies by decision makers, and as a research tool to evaluate the formation and transport of air pollutants in the MALC. To examine the skills of this new system, an air pollution event in April 2016 exhibiting unusually elevated PM2.5 concentrations was simulated and compared against in situ air quality measurements. In addition, a Model Output Statistic (MOS) algorithm has been developed to improve outputs of inhalable particulate matter (PM10) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from the WRF-Chem model. ...
4
artículo
Publicado 2021
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We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the ...
