1
artículo
Publicado 2024
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El sur de la Amazonía muestra un alargamiento de la estación seca debido al retraso en el inicio del sistema monzónico sudamericano (SAMS, por sus siglas en inglés). Mediante el reconocimiento de patrones de circulación atmosférica (CPs), se evaluaron los cambios proyectados del periodo histórico (1970-2000) al futuro (2040-2070), según seis modelos de circulación general (GCM, por sus siglas en inglés) de la sexta fase del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Acoplados (CMIP6). Las proyecciones indican cambios significativos en los CPs asociados a la estación seca, a razón de un inicio tardío y una desaparición temprana del SAMS. La frecuencia de días secos en la Amazonía aumentaría en promedio un 19 %, y se prevé un incremento en la frecuencia de CPs secos al inicio y fin de las temporadas de transición.
2
artículo
Publicado 2020
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The Andes is the most biodiverse region across the globe. In addition, some of the largest urban areas in South America are located within this region. Therefore, ecosystems and human population are affected by hydroclimate changes reported at global, regional and local scales. This paper summarizes progress of knowledge about long-term trends observed during the last two millennia over the entire Andes, with more detail for the period since the second half of the 20th century, and presents a synthesis of climate change projections by the end of the 21st century. In particular, this paper focuses on temperature, precipitation and surface runoff in the Andes. Changes in the Andean cryosphere are not included here since this particular topic is discussed in other paper in this Frontiers special issue, and elsewhere (e.g. IPCC, 2019b). While previous works have reviewed the hydroclimate of ...
3
artículo
Publicado 2021
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We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the ...
4
artículo
Publicado 2024
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South America’s hydroclimate sustains vibrant communities and natural ecosystems of extraordinary biodiversity including the Andes Cordillera, and the Orinoco, La Plata, and Amazon basins. Global warming and land-use change are endangering ecosystem health, exacerbating hydrometeorological extremes, and threatening water and food security for millions of people on the continent (Castellanos et al. 2022). Reductions in rainfall and streamflow have been observed in southern Amazonia, the Cerrado region, northeast Brazil, and Chile (Muñoz et al. 2020; Garreaud et al. 2020; Espinoza et al. 2019; Fu et al. 2013). The increased aridity has affected agricultural yield, water supply for reservoirs, hydropower generation and impacted tens of millions of people in the large metropolitan areas of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Santiago de Chile (Nobre et al. 2016). Andean glaciers, an important ...
