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Assessment of CMIP6 performance and projected temperature and precipitation changes over South America

Publicado por
Almazroui, Mansour, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Islam, M. Nazrul, Rashid, Irfan Ur, Kamil, Shahzad, Abid, Muhammad Adnan, O’Brien, Enda, Ismail, Muhammad, Reboita, Michelle Simões, Sörensson, Anna A., Arias, Paola A., Alves, Lincoln Muniz, Tippett, Michael K., Saeed, Sajjad, Haarsma, Rein, Doblas‑Reyes, Francisco J., Saeed, Fahad, Kucharski, Fred, Nadeem, Imran, Silva Vidal, Yamina, Rivera, Juan A., Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar, Martínez Castro, Daniel, Muñoz, Ángel G., Ali, Md. Arfan, Coppola, Erika, Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba

Publicado 2021

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We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the ...