Covid-19 pandemic and effect of containment measures in the Peruvian population: A SIR mathematical modeling

• Autores: Espinola-Sánchez, Marcos, Racchumí-Vela, Augusto, Sanca-Valeriano, Silvia, Espinola-Sánchez, Sergio, Arango-Ochante, Pedro, Saldaña-Díaz, Claudia, Segundo-Paredes, Jorge, Mejico-Caja, Melisa
• Formato: artículo
• Fecha de Publicación: 2020
• Institución: Cuerpo Médico Hospital Nacional Almanzor Aguinaga Asenjo
• Repositorio: Revista del Cuerpo Médico Hospital Nacional Almanzor Aguinaga Asenjo
• Lenguaje: español
• OAI Identifier: oai:cmhnaaa_ojs_cmhnaaa.cmhnaaa.org.pe:article/656
• Enlace del recurso: https://cmhnaaa.org.pe/ojs/index.php/rcmhnaaa/article/view/656
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: Pandemia; infecciones por coronavirus; transmisión; número básico de reproducción; Perú; Pandemics; coronavirus infections; transmission; basic reproduction number; Peru

Introduction: The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic varies in each population; it has been complicating health systems worldwide. Objective: to analyze the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic, estimating the effect of the containment measures practiced in Peru. Material and Method: The SIR epidemiological mathematical modeling was applied, estimating the COVID-19 evolution in our population. Data analysis was performed following the SIR mathematical model with defined ordinary differential equations to simulate epidemiological behavior; and it was executed in the RStudio programming language. Results: Containment measures decreased the propagation rate, reducing 30% of infected cases until the peak day of infection; however, it is still above the effective reproductive number to control the epidemic and it shows an erratic trend, the result of government actions being 61% in the practice of containment measures. Conclusions: Containment measures are necessary if strategies are considered to make their role effective in our population.