A static life table is estimated using the nonparametric estimator proposed by Kaplan and Meier and the local polynomial regression technique for the graduation using more than 8 million administrative records collected during the years 2013 to 2017. The results reveal that the gap in life expectancy between men and women is lower than that reported by the current table. Thus, the diference in life expectancy measured at 65 years of age is reduced from seven to two years, explained by a decrease in the life expectancy of women of 2.4 years and an increase in life expectancy from 2.1 years in the case of men. The results also reveal that the net actuarial debt would be overestimated in S=2 billion compared to the officially estimated, this is the result of two opposing effects: a decrease in the reserve estimate in the case of women and an increase in the case of men, with the first effec...

Se estima una tabla de vida estática empleando el estimador no paramétrico propuesto por Kaplan y Meier y la técnica de regresión polinómica local para la graduación empleando más de 8 millones de registros administrativos recolectados durante los años 2013 al 2017. Los resultados revelan que la brecha en expectativa de vida entre hombres y mujeres es menor respecto a lo reportado por la tabla vigente. Así, la diferencia en esperanza de vida medido a los 65 años de edad se reduce de siete a dos años, explicado por una disminución de la expectativa de vida de las mujeres de 2.4 años y un incremento de 2.1 años en el caso de los hombres. Los resultados también revelan que la deuda actuarial neta estaría sobreestimada en S=2 mil millones respecto a lo oficialmente estimado, ello es el resultado de dos efectos que se contraponen: un descenso en la estimación de la reserva en...

This doctoral research explores two critical dimensions of pension systems in developing countries, focusing on Peru. The first dimension analyses the role of income-mortality differentials and pension eligibility conditions on the level of regressivity and progressivity of Peru’s public pension system, using administrative records from 1999 to 2018 to do so. We consider the joint effect of (i) insufficient contributions, by which the poorest contribute to the pension system but ultimately do not qualify for pensions because of insufficient contributions, and (ii) differing mortality by socioeconomic status in contributing to regressivity of the system. We find that the impact of insufficient contributions is more important than the impact of higher mortality in making the system regressive. The second dimension assesses the effects of Peru’s social pension programme, Pension 65, on ...

We study the role of income-mortality differentials and pension eligibility conditions on the level of regressivity and progressivity of Peru’s public pension system, using administrative records from 1999 to 2018 to do so. We consider the joint effect of insufficient contributions, by which the poorest contribute to the pension system but ultimately do not qualify for pensions, and differing mortality by socioeconomic status in contributing to the regressivity of the system. We find that the impact of insufficient contributions is more important than the impact of higher mortality in making the system regressive.

We studied the effects that Peru’s social pension programme, Pensión 65, had on mortality. The programme provides pensions to people aged 65 and older who do not have other pension benefits and are extreme poor. The analysis relies on survey data obtained at the baseline and matched to mortality records of 2012-2019. We exploited the discontinuity around the welfare index used by the programme to determine eligibility, and estimate intention-to-treat effects. We found that, after seven years, the programme could reduce mortality among eligible people by about 11.4 percentage points, implying an increase in life expectancy of about one year.

We study the role of income-mortality differentials and pension eligibility conditions on the level of regressivity and progressivity of Peru’s public pension system, using administrative records from 1999 to 2018 to do so. We consider the joint effect of insufficient contributions, by which the poorest contribute to the pension system but ultimately do not qualify for pensions because of insufficient contributions, and differing mortality by socioeconomic status in contributing to regressivity of the system. We find that the impact of insufficient contributions is more important than the impact of higher mortality in making the system regressive.

Una tabla de mortalidad es estimada empleando la estrategia no paramétrica desarrollada por Kaplan-Meier para la estimación de las tasas brutas mientras que el suavizamiento o graduación de estos estimadores se calculan empleando una regresión polinómica local. Los datos provienen de registros administrativos y acumulan alrededor de 5 millones de personas, información que es colectada entre los años 2013 al 2017. De acuerdo a los resultados el diferencial en esperanza de vida entre mujeres y hombres es menor en relación a a los resultados oficiales. De esta manera, la diferencia en esperanza de vida a favor de la mujer, se reduce de 7 a 2 años, brecha que se explica por un descenso de 2.4 años en las mujeres y un aumento de 2.1 años en el caso de los hombres (medido a los 65 años de edad). Como consecuencia de lo anterior se encuentra que el pasivo actuarial esta sobreestimad...

The first case of COVID-19 in Peru was detected on March 5, 2020. On March 15, the Peruvian government declared a state of emergency, which implied the suspension of non-essential work activities in the public and private sectors, mandatory social distancing, and border closures. In the following days, temporary measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus were extended due to the increase in the number of infections. The extension of restrictive measures posed a dilemma for the government in terms of prioritizing between the economy and health. Some could argue that the funds were important to help families cope with income losses, but the SPP affiliates are mostly salaried workers in the formal market with higher educational attainment and job quality better than that of the average worker in the Peruvian labor market. SPP affiliates (particularly those contributing regularly) cor...

Descripción: El curso es obligatorio para las carreras de la Facultad de Economía. Se enfoca en la profundización de conceptos relacionados con el análisis econométrico de datos transversales y longitudinales aplicados a la teoría económica. En particular, se presenta la lógica, supuestos, consecuencias, aplicaciones y limitaciones de metodologías correlacionales que permiten analizar casos de variables dependientes dicotómicas, multinomiales, con problemas de endogeneidad, y con información limitada; metodologías para análisis de datos longitudinales; y se introducen los principales elementos de metodologías para análisis causal (o de Evaluación de Impacto). Propósito: Es un curso propone desarrollar la habilidad de contrastar hipótesis teóricas mediante el uso de información empírica; manejando programas estadístico-econométricos como Stata©. Busca desarrollar l...