Peruvian Pacific drainage catchments only benefit from 2% of the total national available freshwater while they concentrate almost 50% of the population of the country. This situation is likely to lead a severe water scarcity and also constitutes an obstacle to economic development. Catchment runoff fluctuations in response to climate variability and/or human activities can be reflected in extreme events, representing a serious concern (like floods, erosion, droughts) in the study area. To document this crucial issue for Peru, we present here an insightful analysis of the water quantity resource variability of this region, exploring the links between this variability and climate and/or anthropogenic pressure. We first present a detailed analysis of the hydroclimatologic variability at annual timescale and at basin scale over the 1970–2008 period. In addition to corroborating the influe...

In a context of water scarcity in Peruvian Pacific catchments as a crucial issue for Peru, added to the paucity of data availability, we propose a methodology that provides new perspectives for freshwater availability estimation as a base reference for unimpaired conditions. Under those considerations, a regional discharge of 709 m3/s to the Pacific Ocean is estimated with a significant increasing trend of about 43 m3/s per decade over the 1970–2010 period. To represent the multidecadal behaviour of freshwater runoff along the region, a regional runoff analysis is proposed based on hydrological modelling at annual and monthly time step for unimpaired conditions over the whole 1970–2010 period. Differential Split-Sample Tests are used to assess the hydrological modelling robustness of the GR1A and GR2M conceptual lumped models, showing a satisfactory transposability from dry to wet ye...