En este trabajo se sugiere una metodología nueva para estimar la probabilidad que un país incumpla sus compromisos de pago de deuda. Dicha probabilidad se expresa como función de distintas variables macroeconómicas. La metodología se basa en valorar los precios en el mercado secundario de instrumentos de deuda (bonos) emitidos por dichos países. Los bonos elegidos han sido los Bradies debido a que sus características institucionales son similares para distintos emisores. La metodología propuesta toma elementos de los modelos tradicionales como la estructura funcional de la probabilidad de impago y de los modelos de estructura de términos. En resumen, el presente trabajo presenta una nueva manera de extraer el riesgo soberano que se encuentra implícito en los precios de mercado secundario de los bonos elegidos.

In this paper we have suggested a new methodology to estimate the probability of default of a country as a function of other macroeconomics variables. Such methodology is based in the valuation of the prices in the secondary market of bonds issued by debtor countries. We have chosen the Brady bonds because their institutional characteristics do not depend on the issuer country, which allows us to build a homogeneous panel. The methodology proposed takes elements of traditional models such as the functional structure of the probability and elernents of term structure models. The paper demonstrates a new way to extract sovereign nisk, implicit in trade bond prices.

In this paper we have suggested a new methodology to estimate the probability of defaultof a country as a function of other macroeconomics variables. Such methodologyis based in the valuation of the prices in the secondary market of bonds issued by debtorcountries. We have chosen the Brady bonds because their institutional characteristicsdo not depend on the issuer country, which allows us to build a homogeneouspanel. The methodology proposed takes elements of traditional models such as thefunctional structure of the probability and elernents of term structure models. The paperdemonstrates a new way to extract sovereign nsk, implicit in trade bond prices.

The COVID-19 pandemic has generated uncertainty and concern in the population, regarding the possibility of transmission from animals to humans. The objective of this study was to evaluate the perception of companion animal owners about the risk of infection of their pets with COVID-19 in Lima - Peru. A virtual modality epidemiological survey was applied to 408 owners based on demographic information, knowledge about the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, cases of infection, handling of the pet and perception of the risk of infection. The information analysis was carried out using descriptive statistics. The most frequently recognized means of transmission of COVID-19 was through infected people (93.6%), respiratory problems were little observed in dogs (8.1%) and cats (2.2%), against which the owners went to the Veterinarian (61.4%), showing an emotional response of concern (79.7%), ...

El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar empíricamente el efecto de los shocks que afectan el crecimiento de Lima sobre las tasas de crecimiento del resto de departamentos. No pretendemos describir los mecanismos de transmisión a través de los cuales el crecimiento de Lima afecta el crecimiento del resto del país, sino más bien identificar los efectos negativos y positivos de los shocks que se originan en Lima, considerada el centro, sobre el resto de departamentos, conside-rados la periferia. Se empleará un modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos en su representación de medias móviles (VMA), en el cual las variables endógenas son la tasa de crecimiento de Lima, la tasa de crecimiento y la tasa inflación de un departamento de la periferia. Se supone que estas variables son afectadas por shocks de oferta y demanda originados en el centro y la periferia. Para ortogonalizar la matriz de ...

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate empirically the economic relation betweenLima and some departments of the country by estirnating the effect of shocks affectingLima's growth over the rates of growth of the remaining departments. We do notpretend to describe the mechanisms of transmission but to identificate the negative andpositive effects of shocks coming from Lima, considered 'Yhe center", over the rest of departments,considered "the periphery". It will be used the Autorregresive Vector Model inits Moving Average representation (VMA), in which the endogenous variables are Lima'srate of growth, the rate of growth and the rate of inflation of a periphery department. It isassumed that these variables are affected by shocks of demand and supply originated inthe center and the periphery. In order to ortogonalize the estimated error variance-covariancematrix we will use the Blan...

El objetivo general  de  esta investigación  es  identificar las variables  que  afectan  la morosidad de  las instituciones rnicrofinancieras (IMF)  peruanas. Se  propone identifi- car  la  importancia relativa  de  tres tipos  de  variables. En primer  lugar,  variables  de carácter agregado  o  macroeconómico que  están ligadas  al nivel de  actividad  de  la economía peruana en su conjunto (PBI,  inflación, etcétera). En segundo lugar, varia- bles microeconómicas relacionadas con  la  gestión  de  las IMF  (política de  créditos, tecnología crediticia, sistemas de  incentivos para su  personal, etcétera).  Y  finalmente, variables relacionadas con las dinámicas locales  de los  mercados donde  las IMF  realizan  sus  operaciones (PBI  regional  o  departamental, dinámica  de plaza  financiera local, estructura de l...

The main objective  of  this research is to identify the variables that  affect the Peruvian Microfinance Institutions' (MFI) delinquency. The  relative irnportance of  three kinds of variables is analyzed. First,  aggregate  or  macroeconomic  variables related  to  Peruvian  economic  activity (GDP, inflation, etc.). Second, microeconomic variables  related to the management policy of  the  MFI (credit policy, credit technology,  incentives sys- tem to employees, etc.). And finally, variables related to the  local dynamics of  markets where MFI  make their business (regional GDP,  dynamics of  local finance market, local productive activity,  etc.). An  unbalanced dynamic  model of  panel data for  35  MFI with monthly data in the period  1998-2001 is  estimated  using the Generalized  Method of  Moments estimation technique.

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate empirically the economic relation betweenLima and some departments of the country by estirnating the effect of shocks affectingLima's growth over the rates of growth of the remaining departments. We do notpretend to describe the mechanisms of transmission but to identificate the negative andpositive effects of shocks coming from Lima, considered 'Yhe center", over the rest of departments,considered "the periphery". It will be used the Autorregresive Vector Model inits Moving Average representation (VMA), in which the endogenous variables are Lima'srate of growth, the rate of growth and the rate of inflation of a periphery department. It isassumed that these variables are affected by shocks of demand and supply originated inthe center and the periphery. In order to ortogonalize the estimated error variance-covariancematrix we will use the Blan...