Existencia de un boom de créditos en el Perú. Análisis desde la perspectiva de un modelo de cambio de régimen

• Autores: Bacigalupo Landa, Gerardo, Bacigalupo Landa, Sergio
• Fecha de Publicación: 2009
• Institución: Universidad del Pacífico
• Repositorio: UP-Institucional
• Lenguaje: español
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.up.edu.pe:11354/540
• Enlace del recurso: http://hdl.handle.net/11354/540; https://doi.org/10.21678/apuntes.64.583
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: Crédito; Expansión; Consumo; Modelo

Peru has accumulated more than five years of positive growth rates in the product, a period which has been accompanied by an expansion of credit, mainly for consumption, which is expanding at rates above those of economic growth and might be showing an over-indebtedness in the system. It is this feature of the current economic situation in Peru, together with the experience in 1998 and the current international economic crisis which prompted the current investigation, which has as its main objective the proposal of an alternative methodology for assessing the existence of a credit boom. There are two characteristics that commonly appear in periods of credit booms in emerging economies, that are used to evaluate the existence of a credit boom there: (i) a decrease in the quality of the portfolio of the banking system, in aggregate terms, and (ii) a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions. To evaluate the first of these characteristics we use a model that examines the behavior of the quality of the portfolio of consumer credit, using as a proxy variable the system average consumer credit probability of default (PD for short). The results indicated that the increase in consumer credit is declining the quality of the loan portfolio of the banking system. To analyze the second feature in question, we used a model of regime change (STAR for short), an alternative to the methodology commonly used for this type of analysis, as to assess the existence of two systems of behavior of consumer credit. The results confirm the existence of two systems of behavior of the variation in consumer credit, which depend on the change in GDP. Thus, when there is an average growth over the past twelve months of GDP higher than 5,7%, the behavior of consumer credit changes from one regime to another, intensifying the effect of GDP growth on the growth of consumer credit, given the excitement generated by the first of these over the lenders, encouraging them to expand credit. In this way the results of this research work lead to the conclusion that Peru is actually going through a period of consumer credit boom.