Modeling the current and future habitat suitability of Neltuma pallida in the dry forest of northern Peru under climate change scenarios to 2100

• Autores: Barboza Castillo, Elgar, Bravo Morales, Nino, Cotrina Sanchez, Alexander, Salazar Coronel, Wilian, Gálvez Paucar, David, Gonzales, Jhony, Saravia Navarro, David, Valqui Valqui, Lamberto, Cárdenas Rengifo, Gloria Patricia, Ocaña Reyes, Jimmy Alcides, Cruz Luis, Juancarlos, Arbizu Berrocal, Carlos Irvin
• Formato: artículo
• Fecha de Publicación: 2024
• Institución: Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria
• Repositorio: INIA-Institucional
• Lenguaje: inglés
• OAI Identifier: oai:null:20.500.12955/2562
• Enlace del recurso: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12955/2562; https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70158
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: Biodiversity; Coastal dry forest; Google earth engine; Habitat; MaxEnt; https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.06.06; Biodiversidad; Dry forests; Bosque seco; Satellite imagery; Imagen por satélite; Habitats; Entropy; Entropía

The development of anthropic activities and climate change effects impact worldwide species' ecosystems and habitats. Habitats' adequate prediction can be an important tool to assess current and future trends. In addition, it allows strategies development for their conservation. The Neltuma pallida of the forest region in northern Peru, although very significant, has experienced a decline in recent years. The objective of this research is to evaluate the current and future distribution and conservation status of N. pallida in the Peruvian dry forest under climate change (Location: Republic of Peru). A total of 132 forest presence records and 10 variables (bioclimatic, topographic, and soil) were processed and selected to obtain the current and future distribution for 2100, using Google Earth Engine (GEE), RStudio, and MaxEnt. The area under the curve values fell within the range of 0.93–0.95, demonstrating a strong predictive capability for both present and future potential habitats. The findings indicated that the likely range of habitats for N. pallida was shaped by factors such as the average temperature of wettest quarter, maximum temperature of warmest month, elevation, rainfall, and precipitation of driest month. The main suitable areas were in the central regions of the geographical departments of Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque, as well as in the northern part of La Libertad. It is critical to determine the habitat suitability of plant species for conservation managers since this information stimulates the development of policies that favor sustainable use programs. In addition, these results can contribute significantly to identify new areas for designing strategies for populations conserving and recovering with an ecological restoration approach.