Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina. Facultad de Economía y Planificación. Departamento Académico de Economía y Planificación

Huanglongbing (HLB) is a citrus disease known for causing significant production losses, and its potential introduction into Peru looms on the horizon. The aim of this study was to assess the potential economic losses within the Central Jungle's orange production chain, specifically in the Region Junín. This assessment involved simulating the spread of HLB under prospective scenarios spanning from 2026 to 2045, aiming to estimate the cost-benefit of preventing these losses through the implementation of a national phytosanitary program (PNF). The methodology employed in this study comprised administering questionnaires to local growers and estimating economic losses across three scenarios. The first scenario assumed a baseline production trend without HLB presence, while the second scenario considered an epidemiological situation with HLB but without the implementation of a PNF. The thir...