Traditional risk definitions, based on supervisor’s point of view, don’t beholdexplicitly the existence and interaction of other important risks such as derivativecredit risks from other unsecured risk by debtors of bank system in economiespartially “dollarized”. One of these critical risks is derivative credit risk fromexchange risk, which hasn’t been stated directly in doctrine proposed by Basel Committee.This paper settles basic criteria to analyze this risk and describes the principal consequences of issuing debt in a different currency, over credit rating, provisionsand the economic capital that must be assigned in the financial entities (whosecustomers debt show gap currency). These regulations encourage introducingas soon as possible aggressive mechanisms of global and quantitative managementof risk into the financial system, non-existent in countries like Peru.

This paper highlights the amplifier mechanism that has the evolution of exchange rate on the credit cycle in an economy with high financial dollarization, one mechanism that has been called «the exchange rate accelerator». In this scenario, the natural procyclicality between the business cycle and credit cycle goes into the background, but perhaps not fade. The paper develops the theoretical framework underlying the transmission mechanism and shows some stylized facts of Peruvian credit system. The following presents an econometric model with panel data to estimate the effect of exchange rate accelerator on the evolution of credit default in the credit system institutions. From these empirical results, and under Basel II philosophy, the paper discusses how to implement, in banks and other credit institutions, prudential regulation that requires the allocation of provisions and ...

This paper highlights the amplifier mechanism that has the evolution of exchange rate on the credit cycle in an economy with high financial dollarization, one mechanism that has been called «the exchange rate accelerator». In this scenario, the natural procyclicality between the business cycle and credit cycle goes into the background, but perhaps not fade. The paper develops the theoretical framework underlying the transmission mechanism and shows some stylized facts of Peruvian credit system. The following presents an econometric model with panel data to estimate the effect of exchange rate accelerator on the evolution of credit default in the credit system institutions. From these empirical results, and under Basel II philosophy, the paper discusses how to implement, in banks and other credit institutions, prudential regulation that requires the allocation of provisions and ...

This paper highlights the amplifier mechanism that has the evolution of exchange rate on the credit cycle in an economy with high financial dollarization, one mechanism that has been called «the exchange rate accelerator». In this scenario, the natural procyclicality between the business cycle and credit cycle goes into the background, but perhaps not fade. The paper develops the theoretical framework underlying the transmission mechanism and shows some stylized facts of Peruvian credit system. The following presents an econometric model with panel data to estimate the effect of exchange rate accelerator on the evolution of credit default in the credit system institutions. From these empirical results, and under Basel II philosophy, the paper discusses how to implement, in banks and other credit institutions, prudential regulation that requires the allocation of provisions and ...

This paper shows a methodological application of prospective strategic planning as a tool to improve future decision making within the state. To do this, the method of scenarios and pro-spective strategy applied to an exercise of improving the management of the financial equity of the public treasury of a small, open and partly dollarized economy such as the Peruvian one is used. In the exercise, five possible future scenarios were designed from which an as-pirational scenario was constructed, based on current results and lessons from the past, in order to respond to what could happen (risks and opportunities) and the strategic actions that should be implemented to achieve the objectives of such scenario. The document recognizes the different historical importance given to the prospective as a tool of strategic anticipation within the states of developed countries, which unfortunately ha...

In this paper, it is argued that many of the prescriptions of economic policy to promote growth and achieve development tend to be divergent because they use different moral assessment systems at heart. This happens because the economics cannot define welfare without resorting to any particular ethic. The different ethics chosen explains the relationship between free market speech and the environmental economics and the evolution of the critique made by the ecological economics. This in turn reveals the differences between the concepts of growth and development: all profit needs consumption expenditure, but all welfare does not. Even, paradoxically,promoting indicators of sustained growth should not be anecessary condition for achieving sustainable development.

Este trabajo muestra una aplicación del planeamiento estratégico prospectivo como herra-mienta para mejorar la toma de decisiones a futuro dentro del estado. Para ello, se utiliza el método de escenarios y estrategia prospectiva aplicado a un ejercicio de mejora de la gestión del patrimonio financiero de la hacienda pública de una economía pequeña, abierta y parcial-mente dolarizada como la peruana. En el ejercicio se diseñaron cinco escenarios futuros po-sibles a partir de los cuales se construyó un escenario apuesta, tomando como referencia los resultados actuales y las lecciones del pasado, con el fin de responder a lo que podría suce-der (riesgos y oportunidades) y a las acciones estratégicas que se deberían implementar para alcanzar los objetivos de dicho escenario. En el documento se reconoce la diferente impor-tancia histórica dada a la prospectiva como herramienta de...

En este documento se argumenta que muchas de las prescripciones de política económica para promover el crecimiento y lograr el desarrollo tienden a ser divergentes porque usan en el fondo diferentes sistemas de valoración moral. Esto sucede porque la economía no puede definir el bienestar sin recurrir a una ética particular. La diferente ética elegida explica la relación entre el discurso del libre mercado y la economía ambiental y la evolución de la crítica hecha por la economía ecológica. Esto a su vez revela las diferencias entre los conceptos de crecimiento y desarrollo: todo lucro necesita gasto de consumo, pero todo bienestar no.Incluso, paradójicamente, promover indicadores de crecimiento sostenido no tendría por qué ser una condición necesaria para lograr un desarrollo sostenible.

El Perú es una economía parcialmente dolarizada donde el 70% de la liquidez del sistema financiero ha estado en dólares durante casi una década. La mayor parte de los salarios y bienes transados (poder adquisitivo) están en soles (moneda nacional), pero las empresas y la gente se endeudan (y ahorran) en dólares. Esta dolarización estrangula la economía porque cualquier intento de reactivación que favorezca una depreciación o cualquier choque macroeconómico que efectivamente la produzca eleva el valor de las deudas en dólares en términos de soles y crea un efecto inverso y, por tanto, recesivo. El objetivo de este documento es proponer lineamientos de estrategias que permitan reducir las actuales desventajas del sol frente al dólar, de modo que los propios agentes económicos, por conveniencia propia vuelvan al sol, lo cual facilitaría la implementación de medidas económi...

Traditional risk definitions, based on supervisor’s point of view, don’t beholdexplicitly the existence and interaction of other important risks such as derivativecredit risks from other unsecured risk by debtors of bank system in economiespartially “dollarized”. One of these critical risks is derivative credit risk fromexchange risk, which hasn’t been stated directly in doctrine proposed by Basel Committee. This paper settles basic criteria to analyze this risk and describes the principal consequences of issuing debt in a different currency, over credit rating, provisionsand the economic capital that must be assigned in the financial entities (whosecustomers debt show gap currency). These regulations encourage introducingas soon as possible aggressive mechanisms of global and quantitative managementof risk into the financial system, non-existent in countries like Peru.

Determina si las diferentes políticas financieras aplicadas a las deudas públicas soberanas en múltiples países ayudan a explicar los diferentes niveles de desarrollo financiero observados en el mundo. Se trata de un efecto que no ha sido estudiado antes y que es distinto del tradicional efecto de la política fiscal aplicada al saldo de la deuda pública. Si tal influencia en efecto existiera y se determinaran las formas cómo opera, los países en desarrollo podrían contar con nuevos instrumentos de política pública para acelerar su desarrollo. El estudio concluye que las tradicionales teorías del desarrollo financiero estaban incompletas y que hay opciones que permiten un mayor desarrollo financiero, pero su elección involucra también campos de la ética y la política.