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1
documento de trabajo
Publicado 2017
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Using a sample of weekly frequency of the stock and Forex markets returns series, we estimate a set of Markov-Switching-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterocedasticity (MS-GARCH) models to a set of Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) with an approach based on both the Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization (MCEM) and Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood (MCML) algorithms. The estimates are compared with a standard GARCH, MS and other models. The results show that the volatility persistence is captured differently in the MS and MS-GARCH models. The estimated parameters with a standard GARCH model exacerbates the volatility in almost double compared to MS-GARCH model and a lower likelihood with the other model than MS-GARCH model. There is different behavior of the coefficients and the variance according the two regimes (high and low volatility) by each mod...
2
artículo
Publicado 2017
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The study of the profitability´s volatility of the of international financial markets and its impact on the profitability of the Lima Stock Exchange is very important for the agents that take part in the markets: Stock market investors. The study of stationarity verification of the different stock markets´ profitability and the study of conditioned volatility is just as important for investors. According to the behavior showed through the indicators, the investors have a tool to qualify their decisions in the conformation of their portfolios of investment in risky financial assets. The objective of the investigation is to determine the type of profitability´s volatility of the LSE and the impacts it receives from the other global financial markets. The daily data has been collected by INDEX and later from the series, to obtain the daily profitability, and through the statistical proce...
3
artículo
Publicado 2017
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The study of the profitability´s volatility of the of international financial markets and its impact on the profitability of the Lima Stock Exchange is very important for the agents that take part in the markets: Stock market investors. The study of stationarity verification of the different stock markets´ profitability and the study of conditioned volatility is just as important for investors. According to the behavior showed through the indicators, the investors have a tool to qualify their decisions in the conformation of their portfolios of investment in risky financial assets. The objective of the investigation is to determine the type of profitability´s volatility of the LSE and the impacts it receives from the other global financial markets. The daily data has been collected by INDEX and later from the series, to obtain the daily profitability, and through the statistical proce...
4
artículo
Publicado 2021
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Purpose. This paper tests the accuracies of the models that predict the Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the Market Integrated Latin America (MILA) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) emerging stock markets during crisis periods. Design/methodology/approach. Many VaR estimation models have been presented in the literature. In this paper, the VaR is estimated using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models under normal, skewed-normal, Student-t and skewed-Student-t distributional assumptions and compared with the predictive performance of the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk (CaViaR) considering the four alternative specifications proposed by Engle and Manganelli (2004). Findings. The results support the robustness of the CaViaR model in out-sample VaR forecasting for the MILA and ASEAN-5 emerging stock markets in crisis perio...
5
artículo
Publicado 2007
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This article begins with an introduction to the literature on time-varying volatility models and briefly addresses the Bayesian implementation of the ARCH/GARCH/EGARCH class of models. Likewise, an application using the return series of the Return Index of the Lima Stock Exchange (IBVL) is presented and, finally, different specifications of the GARCH/EGARCH class of models are compared using the DIC criterion.
6
artículo
Publicado 2022
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Purpose: The study uses the multivariate GARCH-BEKK model (which was first proposed by Baba et al. (1990) and then further developed by Engle and Kroner (1995)) to examine the return and volatility spillover between India and four leading Asian (namely, China, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) and two global (namely, the United Kingdom and the United States) equity markets. Design/methodology/approach: The study employs a multivariate GARCH-BEKK model to quantify return correlation and volatility transmission across the pre- and post-2008 global financial crisis periods (apart from other conventional time series modelling like cointegration, Granger causality using vector error correction model (VECM)). Findings: The results show a tendency of the Indian stock market index to move along with the US and Hong Kong market indices. The decrease in the value of the co-integration coefficient du...
7
documento de trabajo
Publicado 2016
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Symmetric and asymmetric autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models and stochastic volatility models are applied to daily data of Peruvian stock and Forex markets returns for the period January 5, 1998 until December 30, 2011. Following the approach developed by Omori et al. (2007), Bayesian estimation methodology is used with different structures in the behavior of the disturbance terms. The results suggest the presence of asymmetric effects in both markets. In the stock market, we find that negative shocks generate higher volatility than positive shocks. In the Forex market, shocks related to episodes of depreciation create higher uncertainty in comparison with episodes of appreciation. Thus, the Central Reserve Bank faces relatively major difficulties in its intention of smoothing Forex volatility. The model with the best fit in both returns is the Asymmetric Stochastic Vola...
8
artículo
Publicado 2015
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Dada la amplia participación de acciones mineras en el mercado de valores peruano, la Bolsa de Valores de Lima (BVL) resulta un escenario ideal para explorar tanto el impacto de los rendimientos de acciones de metales en los rendimientos de las acciones mineras y la volatilidad del Mercado de valores, así como los co-movimientos entre los rendimientos de las acciones mineras y los rendimientos de los metales. Este estudio es un primer intento en explorar estos temas usando precios internacionales de los metales y los precios de las acciones mineras más importantes de la BVL y del índice IGBVL. Para conseguir esto, hemos usado modelos GARCH univariados para modelar las volatilidades individuales, y el método de Media Móvil Ponderada Exponencialmente (EWMA) y modelos GARCH multivariados con correlaciones de variantes en el tiempo a modelos de co-movimientos en rendimientos. Hem...
9
artículo
Publicado 2015
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Given the extensive participation of mining stocks in the Peruvian stock market, the Lima Stock Exchange (BVL) provides an ideal setting for exploring both the impact of metal returns on mining stock returns and stock market volatility, and the comovements between mining stock returns and metal returns. This research is a first attempt to explore these issues using international metal prices and the prices of the most important mining stocks on the BVL and the IGBVL index. To achieve this, we use univariate GARCH models to model individual volatilities, and the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) method and multivariate GARCH models with time-varying correlations to model comovements in returns. We found that Peruvian mining stock volatilities mimic the behavior of metal volatilities and that there are important correlation levels between metals and mining stock returns....
10
artículo
Publicado 2015
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Given the extensive participation of mining stocks in the Peruvian stock market, the Lima Stock Exchange (BVL) provides an ideal setting for exploring both the impact of metal returns on mining stock returns and stock market volatility, and the comovements between mining stock returns and metal returns. This research is a first attempt to explore these issues using international metal prices and the prices of the most important mining stocks on the BVL and the IGBVL index. To achieve this, we use univariate GARCH models to model individual volatilities, and the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) method and multivariate GARCH models with time-varying correlations to model comovements in returns. We found that Peruvian mining stock volatilities mimic the behavior of metal volatilities and that there are important correlation levels between metals and mining stock returns....
11
tesis de grado
Publicado 2025
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El acceso al texto completo de la tesis estará habilitado el 11 de 09 de 2029, por expresa disposición del autor.
