Simulación del sistema de transporte urbano de la ciudad de Tarapoto para planificar escenarios futuros

• Autor: Torres Sánchez, Carlos Enrique
• Formato: tesis de grado
• Fecha de Publicación: 2013
• Institución: Universidad Nacional de San Martin - Tarapoto
• Repositorio: UNSM-Institucional
• Lenguaje: español
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.unsm.edu.pe:11458/1802
• Enlace del recurso: http://hdl.handle.net/11458/1802
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: Sistema de transporte; Unidades móviles motorizadas; Congestión del tráfico; Incidencia de accidentes

This research seeks to predict sceneries based on quantitative values of the urban agglomeration of Tarapoto. This has been observed and obtained indicators of the current situation of the urban transport system and it has been hypothesized that "future long-term urban transport system of the urban agglomeration of Tarapoto, sceneries presented greater social unrest that current“. To carry out our predictions according to indicators such as number of mobile motorized units, number of drivers, the price of the service offered by urban transport system, amount of population in urban agglomeration in Tarapoto, fuel prices, and level of traffic congestion in urban transport system; satisfaction in service costs complementary system and the incidence of traffic accidents. We have established two important models, the first of population growth with emerging stimulus that considers socio-economic factor as a strong determinate (sustainable economic growth or economic stagnation) both lead to different scenarios, while uncertainty has been handled with the Monte Carlo function. Moreover based on software developed that allowed Netlogo present scenarios on traffic congestion in the downtown area of Tarapoto agents model, it also includes a feature that manages the chaos inside his evolution was also established. The findings of this research show that if present greater social unrest due to improper development of the urban transport system, but we restrict to the insecurity caused by traffic accidents and dissatisfaction by high fares.