The Impact of climate risk on the profitability of mango (Mangifera indica) cultivation in Chilaco-Lancones using Monte Carlo simulation

• Autores: Bazan Hidalgo, Antonella Isabel, Astudillo Cruz, Gracia Bendita, Rugel Mendoza, Abner Gabriel, Saavedra Navarro, Yesenia, Aldana Yarlequé, Cristhian Nicolás, Oballe Neyra, Carlos Enrique, Moncada Sosa, Wilmer Enrique
• Formato: artículo
• Fecha de Publicación: 2026
• Institución: Universidad Nacional de Frontera
• Repositorio: UNF-Aypate
• Lenguaje: español
• OAI Identifier: oai:ojs2.aypate.revista.unf.edu.pe:article/234
• Enlace del recurso: https://revistas.unf.edu.pe/index.php/aypate/article/view/234
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: riesgo climático; rentabilidad agrícola; Monte Carlo; mango; Cambio Climático; climate risk; agricultural profitability; climate change

Climate change is having a significant impact on tropical agriculture, affecting the profitability of mango (Mangifera indica) cultivation in Sullana, Peru. The objective was to estimate the economic impact of climate risk on mango producers in Chilaco-Lancones using Monte Carlo simulation. A non-experimental design and a mixed-methods approach were applied, analyzing climate data from 2023–2024 and records from 12 local farmers. The results revealed that temperature, precipitation, and humidity directly affect productivity. Furthermore, the simulations show losses of S/.22,958.77 in the Normal scenario and S/.68,306.75 in the Warm-Dry scenario, while the Humid-Cold scenario generated gains of S/.22,321.44. Therefore, Monte Carlo simulation allowed for the assessment of economic vulnerability and the strengthening of agricultural resilience among mango producers in Chilaco-Lancones.