Relationship between monthly rainfall in NW peru and tropical sea surface temperature

• Autores: Bazo, Juan, Lorenzo, M.D.L.N., Porfirio Da Rocha, R.
• Formato: artículo
• Fecha de Publicación: 2013
• Institución: Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú
• Repositorio: SENAMHI-Institucional
• Lenguaje: inglés
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.senamhi.gob.pe:20.500.12542/99
• Enlace del recurso: http://repositorio.senamhi.gob.pe/handle/20.500.12542/99; https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/152875; https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/99
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: Rainfall; Tropical sea; Surface temperature; https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09; variabilidad climatica - Clima y Eventos Naturales

This study assesses the relationship between global sea surface temperature (SST) and a regional index of rainfall (NWPR) in Piura-Tumbes, a coastal region in northwestern Peru, over the period 1965-2008 by means of the Pearson product-moment correlation. The results show that this area is strongly influenced by three indices: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Niño3.4 region, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the equatorial Atlantic Oscillation (ATL3). In particular, a positive correlation has been found with the two first indices (Niño3.4 and IOD) and a negative one with ATL3 with several months of delay. This allows developing a forecast regression model for monthly rainfall in NW Peru with months in advance. The results show that linear regression model is not enough to provide satisfactory results; however, a nonlinear regression model improves considerably the prediction of rainfall anomalies in NW Peru.