A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes

Descripción del Articulo

Runoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a highresolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Potter, Emily R., Fyffe, Catriona L., Orr, Andrés, Quincey, Duncan J., Ross, Andrés N., Rangecroft, Sally, Medina, Katy, Burns, Helen, Llacza, Alan, Jácome, Gerardo, Hellström, Robert Å., Castro, Josué, Cochachín, Alejo, Montoya, Nilton, Loarte, Edwin, Pellicciotti, Francesca
Formato: artículo
Fecha de Publicación:2023
Institución:Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú
Repositorio:SENAMHI-Institucional
Lenguaje:español
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.senamhi.gob.pe:20.500.12542/2925
Enlace del recurso:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00409-z
Nivel de acceso:acceso abierto
Materia:Modelos y Simulación
Sequías Meteorológicas
Escorrentía
Evapotranspiración
Precipitación
Balance de Masa
Cuenca Fluvial
https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09
precipitacion - Clima y Eventos Naturales
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dc.title.es_PE.fl_str_mv A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes
title A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes
spellingShingle A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes
Potter, Emily R.
Modelos y Simulación
Sequías Meteorológicas
Escorrentía
Evapotranspiración
Precipitación
Balance de Masa
Cuenca Fluvial
https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09
precipitacion - Clima y Eventos Naturales
title_short A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes
title_full A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes
title_fullStr A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes
title_full_unstemmed A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes
title_sort A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes
author Potter, Emily R.
author_facet Potter, Emily R.
Fyffe, Catriona L.
Orr, Andrés
Quincey, Duncan J.
Ross, Andrés N.
Rangecroft, Sally
Medina, Katy
Burns, Helen
Llacza, Alan
Jácome, Gerardo
Hellström, Robert Å.
Castro, Josué
Cochachín, Alejo
Montoya, Nilton
Loarte, Edwin
Pellicciotti, Francesca
author_role author
author2 Fyffe, Catriona L.
Orr, Andrés
Quincey, Duncan J.
Ross, Andrés N.
Rangecroft, Sally
Medina, Katy
Burns, Helen
Llacza, Alan
Jácome, Gerardo
Hellström, Robert Å.
Castro, Josué
Cochachín, Alejo
Montoya, Nilton
Loarte, Edwin
Pellicciotti, Francesca
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Potter, Emily R.
Fyffe, Catriona L.
Orr, Andrés
Quincey, Duncan J.
Ross, Andrés N.
Rangecroft, Sally
Medina, Katy
Burns, Helen
Llacza, Alan
Jácome, Gerardo
Hellström, Robert Å.
Castro, Josué
Cochachín, Alejo
Montoya, Nilton
Loarte, Edwin
Pellicciotti, Francesca
dc.subject.es_PE.fl_str_mv Modelos y Simulación
Sequías Meteorológicas
Escorrentía
Evapotranspiración
Precipitación
topic Modelos y Simulación
Sequías Meteorológicas
Escorrentía
Evapotranspiración
Precipitación
Balance de Masa
Cuenca Fluvial
https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09
precipitacion - Clima y Eventos Naturales
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Balance de Masa
Cuenca Fluvial
dc.subject.ocde.es_PE.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09
dc.subject.sinia.none.fl_str_mv precipitacion - Clima y Eventos Naturales
description Runoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a highresolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. Projections under the high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases in temperature of 3.6 °C and 4.1 °C in the two regions, accompanied by a 12% precipitation increase by the late 21st century. Crucially, significant increases in precipitation extremes (around 75% for total precipitation on very wet days) occur together with an intensification of meteorological droughts caused by increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses are enhanced under both the highest emission and stabilization emission scenarios. Our modelling provides a new projection of combined and contrasting risks, in a region already experiencing rapid environmental change.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2023-10-10T21:05:03Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2023-10-10T21:05:03Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2023
dc.type.es_PE.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.sinia.none.fl_str_mv text/publicacion cientifica
format article
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00409-z
dc.identifier.journal.es_PE.fl_str_mv Ciencias del clima y la atmósfera
dc.identifier.url.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00409-z
identifier_str_mv Ciencias del clima y la atmósfera
dc.language.iso.es_PE.fl_str_mv spa
language spa
dc.relation.uri.es_PE.fl_str_mv https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00409-z#citeas
dc.rights.es_PE.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.es_PE.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.es_PE.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
dc.publisher.country.es_PE.fl_str_mv PE
dc.source.es_PE.fl_str_mv Repositorio Institucional - SENAMHI
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Climate Modeling
reponame:SENAMHI-Institucional
instname:Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú
instacron:SENAMHI
instname_str Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú
instacron_str SENAMHI
institution SENAMHI
reponame_str SENAMHI-Institucional
collection SENAMHI-Institucional
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spelling Potter, Emily R.Fyffe, Catriona L.Orr, AndrésQuincey, Duncan J.Ross, Andrés N.Rangecroft, SallyMedina, KatyBurns, HelenLlacza, AlanJácome, GerardoHellström, Robert Å.Castro, JosuéCochachín, AlejoMontoya, NiltonLoarte, EdwinPellicciotti, Francesca2023-10-10T21:05:03Z2023-10-10T21:05:03Z2023https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00409-zCiencias del clima y la atmósferahttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2925Runoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a highresolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. Projections under the high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases in temperature of 3.6 °C and 4.1 °C in the two regions, accompanied by a 12% precipitation increase by the late 21st century. Crucially, significant increases in precipitation extremes (around 75% for total precipitation on very wet days) occur together with an intensification of meteorological droughts caused by increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses are enhanced under both the highest emission and stabilization emission scenarios. 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A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes
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