Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR

Descripción del Articulo

Documento de trabajo; 480
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Boca, Alexander, Rodríguez, Gabriel
Formato: documento de trabajo
Fecha de Publicación:2019
Institución:Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
Repositorio:PUCP-Institucional
Lenguaje:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.pucp.edu.pe:20.500.14657/176221
Enlace del recurso:http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/176221
http://doi.org/10.18800/2079-8474.0480
Nivel de acceso:acceso abierto
Materia:Economic Voting
Fractional Cointegration
Political Economy
Macroeconomics
Latin America
Peru
http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#5.02.00
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dc.title.es_ES.fl_str_mv Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR
title Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR
spellingShingle Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR
Boca, Alexander
Economic Voting
Fractional Cointegration
Political Economy
Macroeconomics
Latin America
Peru
http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#5.02.00
title_short Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR
title_full Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR
title_fullStr Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR
title_full_unstemmed Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR
title_sort Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR
author Boca, Alexander
author_facet Boca, Alexander
Rodríguez, Gabriel
author_role author
author2 Rodríguez, Gabriel
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Boca, Alexander
Rodríguez, Gabriel
dc.subject.en_US.fl_str_mv Economic Voting
Fractional Cointegration
Political Economy
Macroeconomics
Latin America
Peru
topic Economic Voting
Fractional Cointegration
Political Economy
Macroeconomics
Latin America
Peru
http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#5.02.00
dc.subject.ocde.none.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#5.02.00
description Documento de trabajo; 480
publishDate 2019
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2021-05-05T16:43:31Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2021-05-05T16:43:31Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2019-12
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
dc.type.other.none.fl_str_mv Documento de trabajo
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dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/176221
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv http://doi.org/10.18800/2079-8474.0480
url http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/176221
http://doi.org/10.18800/2079-8474.0480
dc.language.iso.es_ES.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.ispartof.none.fl_str_mv urn:issn:2079-8466
urn:issn:2079-8474
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eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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dc.publisher.es_ES.fl_str_mv Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de Economía
dc.publisher.country.none.fl_str_mv PE
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:PUCP-Institucional
instname:Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
instacron:PUCP
instname_str Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
instacron_str PUCP
institution PUCP
reponame_str PUCP-Institucional
collection PUCP-Institucional
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spelling Boca, AlexanderRodríguez, Gabriel2021-05-05T16:43:31Z2021-05-05T16:43:31Z2019-12http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/176221http://doi.org/10.18800/2079-8474.0480Documento de trabajo; 480Presidential approval in Peru depends on economic outcomes. However, voters are unable to distinguish between outcomes resulting from economic policies and those caused by exogenous shocks. Estimation results from seven Fractional Cointegrated VAR (FCVAR) models suggest that presidential approval increases with the monetary policy interest rate, the terms of trade, and manufacturing employment; and decreases with the nominal PEN/USD exchange rate and ináation volatility. Additionally, a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) conducted over a large set of macroeconomic indicators points to a greater ináuence of external over domestic factors in explaining presidential approval; i.e., economic outcomes that determine the dynamics of presidential approval are not under presidential control in Peru. It can be argued that these Öndings identify a signiÖcant source of political instability and a considerable challenge to democratic governance. To the authorsíbest knowledge, this is the Örst application of fractional cointegration analysis to political economy in Latin AmericaengPontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. Departamento de EconomíaPEurn:issn:2079-8466urn:issn:2079-8474info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/pe/Economic VotingFractional CointegrationPolitical EconomyMacroeconomicsLatin AmericaPeruhttp://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#5.02.00Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VARinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperDocumento de trabajoreponame:PUCP-Institucionalinstname:Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perúinstacron:PUCPhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1740-6037https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1174-9642CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8811https://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/bitstreams/bac9083e-ea13-4392-be3b-75d085ba0cd9/download3655808e5dd46167956d6870b0f43800MD52falseAnonymousREADLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81748https://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/bitstreams/90914ff3-aad7-44b9-b23b-5115887182a2/download8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33MD53falseAnonymousREADORIGINALDDD480.pdfDDD480.pdfTexto completoapplication/pdf1764506https://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/bitstreams/481a0d2b-6980-4ec5-9a5b-35090a494b12/download2e196d5c451343a9e4c5808742c0fa93MD54trueAnonymousREADTHUMBNAILDDD480.pdf.jpgDDD480.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg41270https://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/bitstreams/b7a824a2-471c-4321-a61a-390656eed82d/download0a5c334c28c35991363c162bb637d101MD55falseAnonymousREADTEXTDDD480.pdf.txtDDD480.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain93450https://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/bitstreams/f023b6f3-e177-430e-b265-8918ef0a6b62/download8b4bb1146b19595f5c29a83456695ec4MD56falseAnonymousREAD20.500.14657/176221oai:repositorio.pucp.edu.pe:20.500.14657/1762212025-05-22 10:53:32.063http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/pe/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessopen.accesshttps://repositorio.pucp.edu.peRepositorio Institucional de la PUCPrepositorio@pucp.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Presidential Approval in Peru: An Empirical Analysis Using a Fractionally Cointegrated VAR
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