The floriculture as an alternative crop: Descriptive analysis, artificial intelligence modeling, scenario analysis and economic analysis

• Autores: Coaguila-Rodriguez, Peter, Pocomucha-Poma, Vicente Serapio, Cerna-Cueva, Franco
• Formato: artículo
• Fecha de Publicación: 2025
• Institución: Universidad Nacional de Trujillo
• Repositorio: Revistas - Universidad Nacional de Trujillo
• Lenguaje: español
• OAI Identifier: oai:ojs.revistas.unitru.edu.pe:article/5876
• Enlace del recurso: https://revistas.unitru.edu.pe/index.php/scientiaagrop/article/view/5876
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: Floricultura; análisis económico; cultivo alternativo; inteligencia artificial; biodiversidad; sostenibilidad; comercio justo; Floriculture; economic analysis; alternative crop; artificial intelligence; biodiversity; sustainability; fair trade

Floriculture is a sector of growing global importance, contributing to employment generation, income creation, and the promotion of biodiversity and sustainability. This study aimed to identify the factors influencing the adoption of floriculture as an alternative crop in the province of Leoncio Prado, Peru, and to assess its economic viability. A total of 269 farmers were surveyed, analyzing attitudes, land suitability, and socioeconomic and environmental factors. Influential factors were identified using descriptive analysis, chi-square tests, and logistic regression (p < 0.1). Additionally, multiple machine learning algorithms (Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, KNN, SVM, Ensemble, Neural Networks, Naive Bayes) with cross-validation (k = 5) and AUC metrics were employed to model adoption intentions. Scenarios were developed to increase the willingness to adopt floriculture, and an economic analysis of eight tropical species (Red Ginger, Anthurium, Emperor's Staff, Heliconia, Gardenia, Parrot's Beak, Golden Heliconias, Maracas) was conducted. The results reveal that willingness to change crops, participation in awareness campaigns, allocation of areas for conservation, and cost control are key factors. The neural network model achieved an AUC of 83.3%, and improved scenarios indicate that adoption could increase by up to 11.32%. Red Ginger demonstrated high profitability (NPV S/10428; IRR 51%; PBP 0.7 years). In conclusion, floriculture represents an economically and environmentally viable alternative that contributes to agricultural diversification and sustainability.