Because of climate change, much attention is drawn to the Amazon River basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multimodel approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Obidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasting discharge va...

The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the ORCHIDEE land surface model to simulate streamflows over each sub-basin of the Amazon River basin. For this purpose, simulations are performed with a routing module including the influence of floodplains and swamps on river discharge and validated against on-site hydrological measurements collected within the HYBAM observatory over the 1980-2000 period. When forced by the NCC global meteorological dataset, the initial version of ORCHIDEE shows discrepancies with ORE HYBAM measurements with underestimation by 15% of the annual mean streamflow at Óbidos hydrological station. Consequently, several improvements are incrementally added to the initial simulation in order to reduce those discrepancies. First, values of NCC precipitation are substituted by ORE HYBAM daily in-situ rainfall observations from the meteorological services of Am...