Objective: To develop a mathematical model that incorporates the mortality, incidence and prevalence of Mexico’s most common diseases—ulcer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity—in order to improve the accuracy of future medication demand predictions. The model utilizes Markov chains, Monte Carlo simulations, econometric methods and financial projections. Materials and methods: A research design was employed using a predictive mathematical model based on econometric and f inancial approaches, such as Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulations. A simulated population of 20,000 individuals was analyzed over 10 simulation cycles in Excel, where individuals transitioned between the healthy, sick and deceased states. The model included previously researched rates of mortality, incidence and prevalence. Results: Transition tables with probabilities, based on Mexico's most co...