This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal policy and social expenditure coverage during the different phases of the economic cycle, and sheds some light on the determinants of household vulnerability in Peru. Results for the 1994-2004 period reveal that the positive relation between total spendingand growth has contributed to the procyclicality of social expenditure. In fact, its coverage (social spending per poor) falls more than 4% for each 1% reduction in per capita GDP. Thus, a counter-cyclical fiscal rule could help protect social expenditure coverage during recessions, but this would solve only part of theproblem. Empirical evidence regarding the relation between consumption and income variations reveals that poor household face severe restrictions to smooth consumption across the different states of nature, and that social programs now in place have only a marginal contr...

Recent economic expansion in Peru has apparently encouraged higher education demand. Averages, however, mask strong differences between expenditure groups and a potential anti-poor bias. We build a simple theoretical model that predicts a positive relation between education demand, households’ endowments and wage premia. Access to credit reduces endowments’ impact and also encourages education demand if its return is sufficiently large. These predictions are validated after estimating enrolment probabilities using a panelof households for the period 2004-2006. Results help explain the antipoor bias if we combine the relatively small expenditure growth experienced by the first quintiles and the reduction exhibited by the wage premium. Our results also highlight the importance of short run credit constraints and basic education quality as determinants of postsecondary enrolment. This s...

Provee un diagnóstico actualizado y comprensivo de la situación de la calidad de la educación superior en el Perú e identificar los principales desafíos que enfrenta su proceso de mejora. Con este fin, el resto del documento está organizado de la siguiente manera. En la segunda sección discutimos sobre la importancia de la educación superior en la economía y sociedad actual y exploramos el concepto de calidad en este nivel educativo. En la sección tres se analiza el marco legal e institucional de la educación superior en el Perú. La sección cuatro presenta tendencias recientes en cuanto a acceso y propone diversos indicadores para dar cuenta de la calidad de la educación superior. Por último, en la quinta sección se presentan los retos que, a nuestro juicio y a la luz de la evidencia mostrada, deben ser atendidos para impulsar de manera decidida la calidad de la educació...

Semana de la evidencia, 13 de noviembre de 2019.

In the last decade, access to higher education in Peru has increased substantially. On the other hand, the proportion of children and adolescents with adequate knowledge to their grade, reflected in learning tests, remains low and has made little progress. What has happened then with the skills of entrants to higher education? This research uses information of a novel survey that measures skills of several generations, and a difference-in-differences evaluation methodology to show some evidence of deterioration in the average level of cognitive skills of higher education students admitted in the past decade. The lower average level of selectivity in the system has helped this process, as access to private universities has gained preponderance. These results reveal that the lower skills of the last generations of students are one of the reasons for the deterioration of the quality of the ...