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Identifying important individual- and country-level predictors of conspiracy theorizing: A machine learning analysis

Publicado por
Douglas, Karen M., Sutton, Robbie M., van Lissa, Caspar J., Stroebe, Wolfgang, Kreienkamp, Jannis, Agostini, Maximilian, Bélanger, Jocelyn J., Gützkow, Ben, Abakoumkin, Georgios, Khaiyom, Jamilah Hanum Abdul, Ahmedi, Vjollca, Akkas, Handan, Almenara, Carlos A., Atta, Mohsin, Bagci, Sabahat Cigdem, Basel, Sima, Berisha Kida, Edona, Bernardo, Allan B.I., Buttrick, Nicholas R., Chobthamkit, Phatthanakit, Choi, Hoon Seok, Cristea, Mioara, Csaba, Sára, Damnjanovic, Kaja, Danyliuk, Ivan, Dash, Arobindu, Di Santo, Daniela, Enea, Violeta, Faller, Daiane Gracieli, Fitzsimons, Gavan, Gheorghiu, Alexandra, Gómez, Ángel, Hamaidia, Ali, Han, Qing, Helmy, Mai, Hudiyana, Joevarian, Jeronimus, Bertus F., Yu Jiang, Ding, Jovanović, Veljko, Kamenov, Željka, Kende, Anna, Keng, Shian Ling, Kieu, Tra Thi Thanh, Koc, Yasin, Kovyazina, Kamila, Kozytska, Inna, Krause, Joshua, Kruglanski, Arie W., Kurapov, Anton, Kutlaca, Maja, Lantos, Nóra Anna, Lemay, Edward P., Lesmana, Cokorda Bagus Jaya, Louis, Winnifred R., Lueders, Adrian, Malik, Najma Iqbal, Martinez, Anton, McCabe, Kira O., Mehulić, Jasmina, Milla, Mirra Noor, Mohammed, Idris, Molinario, Erica, Moyano, Manuel, Muhammad, Hayat, Mula, Silvana, Muluk, Hamdi, Myroniuk, Solomiia, Najafi, Reza, Nisa, Claudia F., Nyúl, Boglárka, O'Keefe, Paul A., Olivas Osuna, Jose Javier, Osin, Evgeny N., Park, Joonha, Pica, Gennaro, Pierro, Antonio, Rees, Jonas, Reitsema, Anne Margit, Resta, Elena, Rullo, Marika, Ryan, Michelle K., Samekin, Adil, Santtila, Pekka, Sasin, Edyta, Schumpe, Birga M., Selim, Heyla A., Stanton, Michael Vicente, Sultana, Samiah, Tseliou, Eleftheria, Utsugi, Akira, van Breen, Jolien Anne, van Veen, Kees, vanDellen, Michelle R., Vázquez, Alexandra, Wollast, Robin, Yeung, Victoria Wai Lan, Zand, Somayeh, Žeželj, Iris L., Zheng, Bang, Zick, Andreas

Publicado 2023

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Psychological research on the predictors of conspiracy theorizing—explaining important social and political events or circumstances as secret plots by malevolent groups—has flourished in recent years. However, research has typically examined only a small number of predictors in one, or a small number of, national contexts. Such approaches make it difficult to examine the relative importance of predictors, and risk overlooking some potentially relevant variables altogether. To overcome this limitation, the present study used machine learning to rank-order the importance of 115 individual- and country-level variables in predicting conspiracy theorizing. Data were collected from 56,072 respondents across 28 countries during the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic. Echoing previous findings, important predictors at the individual level included societal discontent, paranoia, and persona...