El objetivo ha sido la aplicación del modelo meteorológico WRF y verificar su pronóstico de precipitaciones para Cuba en el período lluvioso del año 2014, para lo cual se han construido dos dominios, uno externo de 24 x 24 km y otro interno de 8 x 8 km de resolución. Algunos de los esquemas de parametrización empleados fueron el ACM2 para capa fronteriza y el de Kain-Fritsch para la convección. Se evaluó el pronóstico de precipitaciones desde 6 hasta 42 horas. La verificación se realizó con ayuda de los datos de la Red de Estaciones Meteorológicas de Cuba. Se emplearon dos métodos, uno basado en la verificación puntual para el pronóstico cuantitativo, y otro conocido como “verificación parcial”, utilizado para el pronóstico alternativo. Como resultados se lograron la implementación del modelo WRF y su verificación, la cual determinó que este modelo subestima las ...

El objetivo radicó en evaluar los resultados del Modelo Climático Global MIROC5 para Perú y obtener una perspectiva del comportamiento futuro de las temperaturas y las precipitaciones para las zonas sur y norte del Perú. Se tomaron datos de salida “historical” del modelo, empleado por el IPCC en el Proyecto de Inter-comparación de Modelos Acoplados, fase cinco (CMIP5) y se realizó una verificación para el tiempo presente, a partir de la cual se ajustaron sus proyecciones simuladas y se obtuvieron las tendencias futuras de las precipitaciones y la temperatura hacia 2030, 2070 y 2100. Como resultado se obtuvo un incremento de las precipitaciones hacia la zona norte del país (27,6 % hacia 2100), que incluye la zona costera y la región de Iquitos, al tiempo que puede esperarse una disminución hacia el sector sur. Para la temperatura se prevé un incremento en todo el país, per...

A sensitivity study of the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting regional model (WRF, version 3.7) to the use of different microphysics, cumulus, and boundary layer parameterizations for short- and medium-term precipitation forecast is conducted in the Central Andes of Peru. Lin-Purdué, Thompson, and Morrison microphysics schemes were tested, as well as the Grell–Freitas, Grell 3d, and Betts–Miller–Janjic cumulus parameterizations. The tested boundary layer schemes were the Yonsei University and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic. A control configuration was defined, using the Thompson, Grell–Freitas, and Yonsei University schemes, and a set of numerical experiments is made, using different combinations of parameterizations. Data from 19 local meteorological stations and regional and global gridded were used for verification. It was concluded that all the configurations over...

The study evaluated the sensitivity of the precipitation forecast in the central Andes of Peru of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to change the planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. In that region is located the Mantaro basin, which is one of the most important in the region. Here, the rainfall is very important to the agriculture and to the reserves of drinking water. The simulations were carried out with ten PBL schemes for 19 days in January, February, and March, between 2009 and 2012. Based on the statistical analysis (model vs. observation), the more efficient schemes were determined and analyses of the vertical profiles of some variables are shown. As a result, the schemes that most helped the model in rainfall forecasting were MYNN3 (general and north sector of the basin), Bou-Lac (central sector) and Bretherton-Park (southern sector). The model generally overestima...

The main objective of the research is to evaluate the response of the WRF model to the domains and resolutions that are used in complex orographic conditions like the central Andes of Peru for the forecast of short- and medium-term rainfall. To do this, the model was configured with four domains and the verifications were made using data from meteorological stations located within the study area and TRMM data. Experiments were conducted for nine 10-day periods of rainy days, five cases of extreme rainfall, and one event with hail fall on the region. In general, the model overestimates precipitation, but, in the five cases of extreme rainfall, and in the case of the hailstorm, underestimation was observed, so it is not accurate to assert in an absolute way that WRF overestimates precipitation in the study region. It was observed that the 3-km domain simulate effectively the accumulated ra...

In this study, the results were evaluated of the application of the meteorological model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in 103 days where extreme precipitation events (90th percentile) occurred within the Mantaro River basin. The WRF atmospheric model was used for four areas through nesting multiple, and spatial resolutions of 18, 6, 3 and 0.75 km, respectively, were obtained. Extreme precipitation forecasts were made and the effectiveness of the numerical outputs was evaluated, using observed data {\emph in-situ}, through the SENAMHI weather station network and satellite information. The values of statistical estimators show that the model tends to underestimate the rainfall data in many cases and overestimates it in others, having limitations in representing the spatial variability of the observed data. Accumulated precipitation satellite data always overestimates precipitation...

In the present study, five-year of precipitation features (PFs) datasets, based on Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), are used to investigate the global and regional characteristics of extreme rainfall events (EREs). The EREs are defined based on the PFs area, depth (maximum height of radar reflectivity), and the rain rate and called them largest, deepest, and intense EREs, respectively.

We acknowledge financial support from the International Foundation for Science, Sweden, Concejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia CONCYTEC, Peru, and the Wellcome Trust, U.K

Present study comes under the project MAGNET-IGP: Strengthening the research line in physics and microphysics of the atmosphere (Agreement No 010-2017-FONDECYT) This work was done using instruments of the Laboratory of Physics, Microphysics and Radiation (LAMAR) and computational resources, HPC-Linux -Cluster, from Laboratorio de Dinamica de Fluidos Geofisicos Computacionales at Instituto Geofisico del Peru (grants 101-2014-FONDECYT, SPIRALES2012 IRD-IGP, Manglares IGP-IDRC, PP068 program).We also thank Mr. Luis Suarez Salas for the support of LAMAR instruments.

The present study explores the cloud microphysics (MPs) impact on the simulation of two convective rainfall events (CREs) over the complex topography of Andes mountains, using the Weather Research and Forecasting- Advanced Research (WRF-ARW) model. The events occurred on December 29 2015 (CRE1) and January 7 2016 (CRE2). Six microphysical parameterizations (MPPs) (Thompson, WSM6, Morrison, Goddard, Milbrandt and Lin) were tested, which had been previously applied in complex orography areas. The one-way nesting technique was applied to four domains, with horizontal resolutions of 18, 6, and 3 km for the outer ones, in which cumulus and MP parameterizations were applied, while for the innermost domain, with a resolution of 0.75 km, only MP parameterization was used. It was integrated for 36 h with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis (NFL) i...