Measuring churner influence on pre-paid subscribers using fuzzy logic

• Autor: Núñez del Prado, Miguel
• Formato: documento de trabajo
• Fecha de Publicación: 2016
• Institución: Universidad del Pacífico
• Repositorio: UP-Institucional
• Lenguaje: inglés
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.up.edu.pe:11354/1823
• Enlace del recurso: http://hdl.handle.net/11354/1823
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: Telefonía celular; Lógica difusa; Comportamiento del consumidor--Procesamiento de datos

In the last decades, mobile phones have become the major medium for communication between humans. The site effect is the loss of subscribers. Consequently, Telecoms operators invest in developing algorithms for quantifying the risk to churn and to influence other subscribers to churn. The objective is to prioritize the retention of subscribers in their network due to the cost of obtaining a new subscriber is four times more expensive than retaining subscribers. Hence, we use Extremely Random Forest to classify churners and non-churners obtaining a Lift value at 10% of 5.5. Then, we rely on graph-based measures such as Degree of Centrality and Page rank to measure emitted and received influence in the social network of the carrier. Our methodology allows summarising churn risk score, relying on a Fuzzy Logic system, combining the churn probability and the risk of the churner to leave the network with other subscribers