Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]

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The main objective of this research was to show the predictive model implementation effects adjusted to grinding process on the economic profitability of a rice milling company. In first instance, quality and production area database was used to model a multiple regression equation, using the “Step...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Escalante-Correa, Luis, Geldres-Marchena, Teodoro
Formato: objeto de conferencia
Fecha de Publicación:2021
Institución:Universidad Privada del Norte
Repositorio:UPN-Institucional
Lenguaje:español
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.upn.edu.pe:11537/31109
Enlace del recurso:https://hdl.handle.net/11537/31109
http://dx.doi.org/10.18687/LACCEI2021.1.1.173
Nivel de acceso:acceso abierto
Materia:Producción
Control de calidad
Método montecarlo
Arroz
Industria molinera
https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.11.04
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dc.title.es_PE.fl_str_mv Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]
title Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]
spellingShingle Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]
Escalante-Correa, Luis
Producción
Control de calidad
Método montecarlo
Arroz
Industria molinera
https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.11.04
title_short Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]
title_full Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]
title_fullStr Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]
title_full_unstemmed Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]
title_sort Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]
author Escalante-Correa, Luis
author_facet Escalante-Correa, Luis
Geldres-Marchena, Teodoro
author_role author
author2 Geldres-Marchena, Teodoro
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Escalante-Correa, Luis
Geldres-Marchena, Teodoro
dc.subject.es_PE.fl_str_mv Producción
Control de calidad
Método montecarlo
Arroz
Industria molinera
topic Producción
Control de calidad
Método montecarlo
Arroz
Industria molinera
https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.11.04
dc.subject.ocde.es_PE.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.11.04
description The main objective of this research was to show the predictive model implementation effects adjusted to grinding process on the economic profitability of a rice milling company. In first instance, quality and production area database was used to model a multiple regression equation, using the “Step by Step” technique in Minitab 19, resulting in: Actual Performance = 0.001 + 0.9317Hest Analysis - 0.000339 Processed Sacks; Predictive R2 = 95.81% and PRESS = 47.5168; concluding that the model fits the process, it is significant and has good predictive capacity. The regression equation was then simulated with Monte Carlo by analyzing probabilities and ranges in MS-Excel, earning operational revenue amounting to S/. 3,263,787.74 corresponding to an improvement of 3.94% compared to 2019, thus improving the company's economic profitability to 9.34% in Net Profit Margin and 15.92% in the ROA. Finally, the financial analysis of the project was carried out obtaining a Financial VAN of S/. 284,307.56, a Financial TIR of 133% and a Profit-Cost of S/.1.10, so the investment proposal is viable for the company.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2022-08-05T21:34:49Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2022-08-05T21:34:49Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2021-09-08
dc.type.es_PE.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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dc.identifier.citation.es_PE.fl_str_mv Escalante, L., & Geldres, T. (2021). Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]. Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology, (173). http://dx.doi.org/10.18687/LACCEI2021.1.1.173
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/11537/31109
dc.identifier.journal.es_PE.fl_str_mv Proceedings of the LACCEI International Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv http://dx.doi.org/10.18687/LACCEI2021.1.1.173
identifier_str_mv Escalante, L., & Geldres, T. (2021). Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]. Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology, (173). http://dx.doi.org/10.18687/LACCEI2021.1.1.173
Proceedings of the LACCEI International Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology
url https://hdl.handle.net/11537/31109
http://dx.doi.org/10.18687/LACCEI2021.1.1.173
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dc.publisher.es_PE.fl_str_mv LACCEI
dc.publisher.country.es_PE.fl_str_mv US
dc.source.es_PE.fl_str_mv Universidad Privada del Norte
Repositorio Institucional - UPN
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spelling Escalante-Correa, LuisGeldres-Marchena, Teodoro2022-08-05T21:34:49Z2022-08-05T21:34:49Z2021-09-08Escalante, L., & Geldres, T. (2021). Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]. Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology, (173). http://dx.doi.org/10.18687/LACCEI2021.1.1.173https://hdl.handle.net/11537/31109Proceedings of the LACCEI International Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technologyhttp://dx.doi.org/10.18687/LACCEI2021.1.1.173The main objective of this research was to show the predictive model implementation effects adjusted to grinding process on the economic profitability of a rice milling company. In first instance, quality and production area database was used to model a multiple regression equation, using the “Step by Step” technique in Minitab 19, resulting in: Actual Performance = 0.001 + 0.9317Hest Analysis - 0.000339 Processed Sacks; Predictive R2 = 95.81% and PRESS = 47.5168; concluding that the model fits the process, it is significant and has good predictive capacity. The regression equation was then simulated with Monte Carlo by analyzing probabilities and ranges in MS-Excel, earning operational revenue amounting to S/. 3,263,787.74 corresponding to an improvement of 3.94% compared to 2019, thus improving the company's economic profitability to 9.34% in Net Profit Margin and 15.92% in the ROA. Finally, the financial analysis of the project was carried out obtaining a Financial VAN of S/. 284,307.56, a Financial TIR of 133% and a Profit-Cost of S/.1.10, so the investment proposal is viable for the company.El objetivo principal de la investigación fue demostrar el efecto de la implementación de un modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda en la rentabilidad económica de una empresa molinera de arroz, utilizando datos de las áreas de calidad y producción para modelar una ecuación de regresión múltiple, con la técnica Paso a Paso en Minitab 19, obteniendo los siguientes indicadores: R2 predictivo = 95.81% y PRESS = 47.5168, explicando que dicha ecuación se ajusta al proceso de molienda, es significativo y posee alta capacidad predictiva. Por consiguiente, la ecuación fue simulada con Montecarlo mediante el análisis de probabilidades y rangos en MS-Excel, obteniendo ingresos operacionales ascendentes a S/. 3,263,787.74 correspondiente a una mejora del 3.94% con respecto al 2019, además la rentabilidad económica de la empresa mejoró a un 9.34% en Margen de Utilidad Neta y un 15.92% en el ROA. Finalmente, se realizó el análisis financiero del proyecto obteniendo un VAN Financiero de S/. 284,307.56, un TIR Financiero de 133% y un Beneficio-Costo de S/.1.10, por lo que la propuesta de inversión es viable para la empresa.Revisión por paresTrujillo San Isidroapplication/pdfspaLACCEIUSinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAtribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 3.0 Estados Unidos de Américahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/us/Universidad Privada del NorteRepositorio Institucional - UPNreponame:UPN-Institucionalinstname:Universidad Privada del Norteinstacron:UPNProducciónControl de calidadMétodo montecarloArrozIndustria molinerahttps://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.11.04Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObjectORIGINALPredictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo.pdfPredictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo.pdfapplication/pdf1211162https://repositorio.upn.edu.pe/bitstream/11537/31109/1/Predictive%20model%20adjusted%20to%20the%20milling%20process%20and%20the%20effect%20on%20economic%20profitability%20simulated%20with%20Montecarlo.pdff58bf96f2378bb24c59800084815a201MD51TEXTPredictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo.pdf.txtPredictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain37350https://repositorio.upn.edu.pe/bitstream/11537/31109/4/Predictive%20model%20adjusted%20to%20the%20milling%20process%20and%20the%20effect%20on%20economic%20profitability%20simulated%20with%20Montecarlo.pdf.txt2cefd1ded51457813c8c2d0549a4bf2eMD54THUMBNAILPredictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo.pdf.jpgPredictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg3582https://repositorio.upn.edu.pe/bitstream/11537/31109/5/Predictive%20model%20adjusted%20to%20the%20milling%20process%20and%20the%20effect%20on%20economic%20profitability%20simulated%20with%20Montecarlo.pdf.jpgf4b41776884d424449684af63a53cd61MD55CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; 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Predictive model adjusted to the milling process and the effect on economic profitability simulated with Montecarlo, a rice processing company [Modelo predictivo ajustado al proceso de molienda y el efecto en la rentabilidad económica simulado con Montecarlo, una empresa procesadora de arroz]
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