El impacto de la inversión pública sobre el crecimiento económico del departamento de Loreto en el periodo 2007 - 2019

• Autor: Puicón Caballero, Peter Alexis
• Formato: tesis de maestría
• Fecha de Publicación: 2023
• Institución: Universidad Nacional De La Amazonía Peruana
• Repositorio: UNAPIquitos-Institucional
• Lenguaje: español
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.unapiquitos.edu.pe:20.500.12737/9043
• Enlace del recurso: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12737/9043
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: Inversiones públicas; Crecimiento económico; Desempleo; https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#5.06.02

This study analyzes the effect that exists between public investment on the economic growth of the Loreto region, the level of unemployment, and spending on the education sector, during the period 2007-2019. The research was based on the theory of endogenous growth that proposes a growth model in which the variables of investment in human capital (which will be used as a proxy for spending in the education sector) and the labor market must be explicitly considered. (which will be measured by the level of unemployment), in order to correctly estimate the change in long-term economic growth.To estimate the model, we used a Bayesian autoregressive vector model (BVAR), since it is one of the recommended methodologies to analyze the effects of one macroeconomic variable on another and because of its benefit of being robust and consistent with small amounts of data; This methodology allows us to estimate the effects on economic growth, the level of unemployment and spending on education in the face of an increase or shock in public investment, it also tells us which variables have a greater impact on economic growth.All the variables show to be cointegrated according to Granger, which indicates that they have a long-term equilibrium relationship; and the effects of the variables on economic growth can be estimated with greater precision. The results show that public investment does have a positive impact on the economic growth of the Loreto region and on spending on education, while it shows a negative impact on the level of unemployment. On the other hand, using the impulse response function, the results show that an increase in public investment by 198 points increases economic growth by S/ 206,565; spending on education by S/ 854 and decreases unemployment by approximately 0.5%, keeping the rest of the factors constant.