Comparison between the Operational and Statistical Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts in The Central Coast of Peru

Descripción del Articulo

https://github.com/gdelacruzm/TemperatureForecastLima
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Aliaga Nestares, Vannia, De la Cruz, Gustavo, Takahashi, Ken
Formato: artículo
Fecha de Publicación:2023
Institución:Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú
Repositorio:SENAMHI-Institucional
Lenguaje:español
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.senamhi.gob.pe:20.500.12542/2665
Enlace del recurso:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2665
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0094.1
Nivel de acceso:acceso abierto
Materia:Pronóstico Meteorológico
Empirical Models
Regression Models
Temperatura del Aire
Zona Costera
Numerical Models
https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09
temperatura - Aire y Atmósfera
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oai_identifier_str oai:repositorio.senamhi.gob.pe:20.500.12542/2665
network_acronym_str SEAM
network_name_str SENAMHI-Institucional
repository_id_str 4818
dc.title.es_PE.fl_str_mv Comparison between the Operational and Statistical Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts in The Central Coast of Peru
title Comparison between the Operational and Statistical Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts in The Central Coast of Peru
spellingShingle Comparison between the Operational and Statistical Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts in The Central Coast of Peru
Aliaga Nestares, Vannia
Pronóstico Meteorológico
Empirical Models
Regression Models
Temperatura del Aire
Zona Costera
Numerical Models
https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09
temperatura - Aire y Atmósfera
title_short Comparison between the Operational and Statistical Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts in The Central Coast of Peru
title_full Comparison between the Operational and Statistical Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts in The Central Coast of Peru
title_fullStr Comparison between the Operational and Statistical Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts in The Central Coast of Peru
title_full_unstemmed Comparison between the Operational and Statistical Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts in The Central Coast of Peru
title_sort Comparison between the Operational and Statistical Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts in The Central Coast of Peru
author Aliaga Nestares, Vannia
author_facet Aliaga Nestares, Vannia
De la Cruz, Gustavo
Takahashi, Ken
author_role author
author2 De la Cruz, Gustavo
Takahashi, Ken
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Aliaga Nestares, Vannia
De la Cruz, Gustavo
Takahashi, Ken
dc.subject.es_PE.fl_str_mv Pronóstico Meteorológico
Empirical Models
Regression Models
Temperatura del Aire
Zona Costera
Numerical Models
topic Pronóstico Meteorológico
Empirical Models
Regression Models
Temperatura del Aire
Zona Costera
Numerical Models
https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09
temperatura - Aire y Atmósfera
dc.subject.ocde.es_PE.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09
dc.subject.sinia.es_PE.fl_str_mv temperatura - Aire y Atmósfera
description https://github.com/gdelacruzm/TemperatureForecastLima
publishDate 2023
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2023-03-08T17:29:02Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2023-03-08T17:29:02Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2023-02
dc.type.es_PE.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.sinia.es_PE.fl_str_mv text/publicacion cientifica
format article
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2665
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0094.1
dc.identifier.journal.none.fl_str_mv Weather and Forecasting
dc.identifier.url.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2665
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2665
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2665
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0094.1
identifier_str_mv Weather and Forecasting
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language spa
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dc.rights.es_PE.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.rights.uri.es_PE.fl_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Reconocimiento - No comercial - Sin obra derivada (CC BY-NC-ND)
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.format.es_PE.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.es_PE.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
dc.source.es_PE.fl_str_mv Repositorio Institucional - SENAMHI
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:SENAMHI-Institucional
instname:Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú
instacron:SENAMHI
instname_str Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú
instacron_str SENAMHI
institution SENAMHI
reponame_str SENAMHI-Institucional
collection SENAMHI-Institucional
dc.source.journal.es_PE.fl_str_mv Weather and Forecasting
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spelling Aliaga Nestares, VanniaDe la Cruz, GustavoTakahashi, Ken2023-03-08T17:29:02Z2023-03-08T17:29:02Z2023-02https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2665https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0094.1Weather and Forecastinghttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2665https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12542/2665https://github.com/gdelacruzm/TemperatureForecastLimaMultiple linear regression models were developed for 1-3-day lead forecasts of maximum and minimum temperature for two locations in the city of Lima, in the central coast of Peru (12°S), and contrasted with the operational forecasts issued by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service - SENAMHI and the output of a regional numerical atmospheric model. We developed empirical models, fitted to data from the 2000-2013 period, and verified their skill for the 2014-2019 period. Since El Niño produces a strong low-frequency signal, the models focus on the high-frequency weather and subseasonal variability (60-day cutoff). The empirical models outperformed the operational forecasts and the numerical model. For instance, the high-frequency annual correlation coefficient and root mean square error (RMSE) for the 1-day lead forecasts were 0.37-0.53 and 0.74-1.76°C for the empirical model, respectively, but around −0.05-0.24 and 0.88-4.21°C in the operational case. Only three predictors were considered for the models, including persistence and large-scale atmospheric indices. Contrary to our belief, the model skill was lowest for the austral winter (June-August), when the extratropical influence is largest, suggesting an enhanced role of local effects. Including local specific humidity as a predictor for minimum temperature at the inland location substantially increased the skill and reduced its seasonality. There were cases in which both the operational and empirical forecast had similar strong errors and we suggest mesoscale circulations, such as the Low-Level Cyclonic Vortex over the ocean, as the culprit. Incorporating such information could be valuable for improving the forecasts.application/pdfspaAmerican Meteorological Societyurn:issn:1944-7973https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/aop/WAF-D-21-0094.1/WAF-D-21-0094.1.xmlinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessReconocimiento - No comercial - Sin obra derivada (CC BY-NC-ND)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Repositorio Institucional - SENAMHIServicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del PerúWeather and Forecastingreponame:SENAMHI-Institucionalinstname:Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perúinstacron:SENAMHIPronóstico MeteorológicoEmpirical ModelsRegression ModelsTemperatura del AireZona CosteraNumerical Modelshttps://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09temperatura - Aire y AtmósferaComparison between the Operational and Statistical Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts in The Central Coast of Peruinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articletext/publicacion cientificaORIGINALComparison-between-the-operational-and-statistical-daily-maximum-and-minimum-temperature-forecasts-in-the-Central-Coast-of-Peru_2023.pdfComparison-between-the-operational-and-statistical-daily-maximum-and-minimum-temperature-forecasts-in-the-Central-Coast-of-Peru_2023.pdfapplication/pdf4364613http://repositorio.senamhi.gob.pe/bitstream/20.500.12542/2665/5/Comparison-between-the-operational-and-statistical-daily-maximum-and-minimum-temperature-forecasts-in-the-Central-Coast-of-Peru_2023.pdfe2ed53985ff9928ecf0d5bcd76b26bc2MD55CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; 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Comparison between the Operational and Statistical Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts in The Central Coast of Peru
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