The weekly P25 of the age of the influenza-like illness shows a higher correlation with COVID-19 mortality than rapid tests and could predict the evolution of COVID-19 pandemics in sentinel surveillance, Piura, Perú, 2021.

• Autores: Ocaña Gutiérrez, V.R.O., González-Ramírez, R.A.G., Ocaña Aguilar, V.A.O., Ocaña Aguilar, N.G.O., Holguín-Mauricci, C.E.H.
• Formato: artículo
• Fecha de Publicación: 2024
• Institución: Universidad Nacional de Cajamarca
• Repositorio: UNC-Institucional
• Lenguaje: inglés
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.unc.edu.pe:20.500.14074/9986
• Enlace del recurso: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14074/9986; https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0295309
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: COVID-19; Peru; https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.03.09

Goal To describe the dynamics of syndromic surveillance of ILI cases in seasonal and COVID-19 pandemic scenarios. Methodology A descriptive study of the epidemiological behavior of ILI in the seasonal and COVID-19 pandemic scenarios. Of a sample of 16,231 cases of ILI from 2013 to 2021, the features of cases from 68 weeks before and during the pandemic were selected and compared; weekly endemic channels were built; data fluctuations on the trend of ILI cases were analyzed; and estimated weekly correlations between weekly P25 age, cases confirmed by rapid tests, and mortality from COVID-19. To analyze clinical-epidemiological and mortality data, Student’s t test, Mann-Whitney U, Chi2, Spearman’s Ro, polynomial, and multinomial regression with a 95% confidence interval were used. Results During the COVID-19 pandemic, those most affected with ILI were: adults and the elderly; higher median age; autochthonous cases predominated; a lower proportion of other syndromes; delays in seeking care; and a higher rate of pneumonia attack than in the seasonal period (p< 0.01). Rapid tests (serological and antigenic) confirmed 52.7% as COVID-19. Two ILI pandemic waves were seasonally consistent with confirmed COVID-19 cases and district mortality with robust correlation (p<0.01) before and during the pandemic, especially the ILI weekly P25 age, which has a more robust correlation with mortality than ILI and rapid tests (p<0.01) whose endemic channels describe and could predict the evolution of the pandemic (p<0.01). Conclusions The pandemic changed the clinical and epidemiological behavior of ILI, and the weekly P25 of age is a more robust indicator to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic than a rapid test and could predict its evolution.