MODELING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF CEDRELA ODORATA L. “CEDRO” IN THE PERUVIAN AMAZON

• Autor: Laurente, Miguel
• Formato: artículo
• Fecha de Publicación: 2015
• Institución: Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal
• Repositorio: Revistas - Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal
• Lenguaje: español
• OAI Identifier: oai:ojs2.revistas.unfv.edu.pe:article/174
• Enlace del recurso: https://revistas.unfv.edu.pe/rtb/article/view/174
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: Cambio climático; Distribución de especie; Modelación; Cedrela odorata; MaxEnT; Climate change; species distribution; Modeling; MaxEnt

Climate change is directly and indirectly affecting plants, having documented, among others, changingthe distribution pattern until the species extinction; in this context the present study evaluated the effects of climate change on the distribution of Cedrela odorata in the Peruvian Amazon applying modeling techniques with Maxent. The current distribution and under future climate scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, 6.0 and RCP 8.5 formulated to mitigate climate change from the 5th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated. The occurrence data were obtained from reports from the Herbarium collections of the Faculty of Forestry at the Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, the Herbarium of the Missouri Botanical Garden and the National Forest and Wildlife Service, Lima, Peru. Bioclimatic, topographic and soil variables were obtained from the database Worldclim, Aster GDEM and the Directorate General of Agricultural, Environmental Affairs respectively. The potential results of the statistical test distribution underwent Area Under the Curve (AUC) analysis, determining a value of 0.8, which is good. The current distribution covers an area of 24,512,600.2 ha, and the effects of climate change by 2050 will affect 53% of the area in the four scenarios until the year 2070; this effect remains, except for the stage RCP 8.5 in which it diminishes.