Application of the Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters models for the forecast of the monthly flows in the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station, Huancayo-Peru

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The Shullcas River is born in the Chuspicocha and Lazo Untay lagoons located on the western ankof the Huaytapallana, it is the main source of water for human consumption in the city of Huancayo.The objective of the research work is to apply the Box - Jenkins, and Holt - Winters models forthe forecas...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Reyes Rodríguez, Toribio
Formato: artículo
Fecha de Publicación:2019
Institución:Universidad Nacional Santiago Antúnez de Mayolo
Repositorio:Revistas - Universidad Nacional Santiago Antunez de Mayolo
Lenguaje:español
OAI Identifier:oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/608
Enlace del recurso:http://revistas.unasam.edu.pe/index.php/Aporte_Santiaguino/article/view/608
Nivel de acceso:acceso abierto
Materia:modelo
pronóstico
Box-Jenkins
Holt - Winters
Perú
model
forecast
Holt -Winters
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spelling Application of the Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters models for the forecast of the monthly flows in the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station, Huancayo-PeruAplicación de los modelos Box-Jenkins y Holt-Winters para el pronóstico de los caudales mensuales en el río Shullcas en la estación Chamisería, Huancayo-PerúReyes Rodríguez, ToribiomodelopronósticoBox-JenkinsHolt - WintersPerúmodelforecastBox-JenkinsHolt -WintersPerúThe Shullcas River is born in the Chuspicocha and Lazo Untay lagoons located on the western ankof the Huaytapallana, it is the main source of water for human consumption in the city of Huancayo.The objective of the research work is to apply the Box - Jenkins, and Holt - Winters models forthe forecast of the monthly ows of the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station. The Holt -Wintersmultiplicative model is not applicable because the predicted monthly ows have a secular tendencyThe ARIMA model (1,0, 0)(2, 1, 1)12 is the most suitable for the forecast of monthly ows becausethey have the lowest value of the Akaike information criterion (0, 551)El río Shullcas nace en las lagunas Chuspicocha y Lazo Untay, ubicadas en el flanco occidental del nevado Huaytapallana, es la fuente principal de agua para consumo humano en la ciudad de Huancayo. El objetivo del trabajo de investigación es aplicar los modelos de Box-Jenkins, yHolt-Winters para el pronóstico de los caudales mensuales del río Shullcas en la estación Chamisería. El modelo multiplicativo deHolt-Winters no es aplicable porque los caudales mensuales pronosticados tienen tendencia secular. El modeloARIMA(1, 0, 0)(2, 1, 1)12 es el más adecuado para el pronóstico de los caudales mensuales porque tienen el menor valor del criterio de información de Akaike (0, 551)Universidad Nacional Santiago Antúnez de Mayolo2019-08-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdftext/htmlhttp://revistas.unasam.edu.pe/index.php/Aporte_Santiaguino/article/view/60810.32911/as.2019.v12.n1.608Aporte Santiaguino; Vol. 12, Núm. 1 (2019): Enero-Junio; Pág: 70-802616-95412070-836Xreponame:Revistas - Universidad Nacional Santiago Antunez de Mayoloinstname:Universidad Nacional Santiago Antúnez de Mayoloinstacron:UNASAMspahttp://revistas.unasam.edu.pe/index.php/Aporte_Santiaguino/article/view/608/704http://revistas.unasam.edu.pe/index.php/Aporte_Santiaguino/article/view/608/824info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/6082019-12-20T13:14:42Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Application of the Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters models for the forecast of the monthly flows in the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station, Huancayo-Peru
Aplicación de los modelos Box-Jenkins y Holt-Winters para el pronóstico de los caudales mensuales en el río Shullcas en la estación Chamisería, Huancayo-Perú
title Application of the Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters models for the forecast of the monthly flows in the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station, Huancayo-Peru
spellingShingle Application of the Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters models for the forecast of the monthly flows in the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station, Huancayo-Peru
Reyes Rodríguez, Toribio
modelo
pronóstico
Box-Jenkins
Holt - Winters
Perú
model
forecast
Box-Jenkins
Holt -Winters
Perú
title_short Application of the Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters models for the forecast of the monthly flows in the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station, Huancayo-Peru
title_full Application of the Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters models for the forecast of the monthly flows in the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station, Huancayo-Peru
title_fullStr Application of the Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters models for the forecast of the monthly flows in the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station, Huancayo-Peru
title_full_unstemmed Application of the Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters models for the forecast of the monthly flows in the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station, Huancayo-Peru
title_sort Application of the Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters models for the forecast of the monthly flows in the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station, Huancayo-Peru
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Reyes Rodríguez, Toribio
author Reyes Rodríguez, Toribio
author_facet Reyes Rodríguez, Toribio
author_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv modelo
pronóstico
Box-Jenkins
Holt - Winters
Perú
model
forecast
Box-Jenkins
Holt -Winters
Perú
topic modelo
pronóstico
Box-Jenkins
Holt - Winters
Perú
model
forecast
Box-Jenkins
Holt -Winters
Perú
description The Shullcas River is born in the Chuspicocha and Lazo Untay lagoons located on the western ankof the Huaytapallana, it is the main source of water for human consumption in the city of Huancayo.The objective of the research work is to apply the Box - Jenkins, and Holt - Winters models forthe forecast of the monthly ows of the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station. The Holt -Wintersmultiplicative model is not applicable because the predicted monthly ows have a secular tendencyThe ARIMA model (1,0, 0)(2, 1, 1)12 is the most suitable for the forecast of monthly ows becausethey have the lowest value of the Akaike information criterion (0, 551)
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-08-12
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://revistas.unasam.edu.pe/index.php/Aporte_Santiaguino/article/view/608
10.32911/as.2019.v12.n1.608
url http://revistas.unasam.edu.pe/index.php/Aporte_Santiaguino/article/view/608
identifier_str_mv 10.32911/as.2019.v12.n1.608
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv spa
language spa
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://revistas.unasam.edu.pe/index.php/Aporte_Santiaguino/article/view/608/704
http://revistas.unasam.edu.pe/index.php/Aporte_Santiaguino/article/view/608/824
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Nacional Santiago Antúnez de Mayolo
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Nacional Santiago Antúnez de Mayolo
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Aporte Santiaguino; Vol. 12, Núm. 1 (2019): Enero-Junio; Pág: 70-80
2616-9541
2070-836X
reponame:Revistas - Universidad Nacional Santiago Antunez de Mayolo
instname:Universidad Nacional Santiago Antúnez de Mayolo
instacron:UNASAM
instname_str Universidad Nacional Santiago Antúnez de Mayolo
instacron_str UNASAM
institution UNASAM
reponame_str Revistas - Universidad Nacional Santiago Antunez de Mayolo
collection Revistas - Universidad Nacional Santiago Antunez de Mayolo
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 13.210282
Application of the Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters models for the forecast of the monthly flows in the Shullcas river in the Chamisería station, Huancayo-Peru
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