Current and future water availability in the context of water insecurity in the Parón catchment, Santa River basin, Peru

• Autores: Izaguirre Liviac, Marcos Fabio, Drenkhan, Fabian, Timaná, Martín
• Formato: artículo
• Fecha de Publicación: 2024
• Institución: Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
• Repositorio: Revistas - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
• Lenguaje: español
• OAI Identifier: oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/26692
• Enlace del recurso: http://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/Kawsaypacha/article/view/26692
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: Glacier retreat; Future scenarios; Water balance; Water security; Cordillera Blanca; Hydrological model; Peru; Retroceso glaciar; Escenarios futuros; Balance hídrico; Seguridad hídrica; Cordillera blanca; Modelo hidrológico; Perú

Water security in Andean watersheds depends on adaptive water management in the face of glaciohydrological and socioeconomic impacts. The Parón sub-basin in the Santa River basin (Ancash, Peru) is a suitable case in this respect. Water is regulated by a floodgate in the Parón lake, which has become a focal point of social conflict. This study analyzes the water balance of this sub-basin using a semi-distributed hydrological model for the present (2006-2016) and future (2030-2050), considering different scenarios of precipitation variation, glacial melting, and increased water demand. Without regulation of the lake, the sub-basin would enter into a strong water deficit in the dry months (June-August). Until 2030 (2050), assuming a maximum regulation of 2.6 m³/s, a 15% (35%) increase in precipitation, and a 10% (26%) decrease in the glacier contribution to the annual flow, water availability would be reduced by 37% (35%). In a pessimistic scenario with a 15% (35%) decrease in precipitation, water availability would still be reduced by 47% (56%) annually. These results highlight the need to keep a socially acceptable minimum water flow (>2 m³/s) to avoid critical levels of water scarcity in the dry months and to address the needs of local water users.