El Niño – related precipitation variability in Perú

• Autores: Lagos Enríquez, Pablo, Silva Vidal, Yamina, Nickl, E., Mosquera Vásquez, Kobi Alberto
• Formato: artículo
• Fecha de Publicación: 2008
• Institución: Instituto Geofísico del Perú
• Repositorio: IGP-Institucional
• Lenguaje: inglés
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.igp.gob.pe:20.500.12816/3306
• Enlace del recurso: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12816/3306; https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-14-231-2008
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: El Niño; Atmospheric precipitation; Ocean temperature; http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.09; http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.10; http://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.11

The relationship between monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the commonly used El Niño regions and precipitation for 44 stations in Perú is documented for 1950–2002. Linear lag correlation analysis is employed to establish the potential for statistical precipitation forecasts from SSTs. Useful monthly mean precipitation anomaly forecasts are possible for several locations and calendar months if SST anomalies in El Niño 1+2, Niño 3.4, and Niño 4 regions are available. Prediction of SST anomalies in El Niño regions is routinely available from Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, with reasonable skill in the El Niño 3.4 region, but the prediction in El Niño 1+2 region is less reliable. The feasibility of using predicted SST anomalies in the El Niño 3.4 region to predict SST anomalies in El Niño 1+2 region is discussed.