1
tesis de grado
Publicado 2023
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This investigative project deployed a meticulous comparison between two methods for predicting solar radiation in Iquitos, utilizing the statistical ARIMA model and a machine learning model grounded in neural networks, with a mixed non-experimental design approach and data provided by SENAMHI, encompassing variables such as solar radiation, relative humidity, and atmospheric pressure. Despite the neural network model displaying formidable performance, accounting for 98.85% of the variability in the training dataset, a decline in its efficiency was observed in the validation and testing phases, hinting at potential overfitting. Conversely, the ARIMA model, while showcasing merely acceptable performance with an MSE of 45.651 and an R² of 0.8500, demonstrated steady robustness. The comparison elucidated that, although neural networks possess superiority in predictive capacity, explaining 9...