The general objective of this work was to predict the profitability of the earthmoving fleet of the construction company FRELMAR S.A.C. Making use of a study of the quantitative, experimental, longitudinal, correlational, comparative application type; The sample consisted of 93 data on the income and costs of the 1103 dump truck used in the haulage system, from October 2020 to December 2021. Observation was used as the data collection technique, the main instrument being the field notebook and the valuations as primary source. The simulations were made for two dump trucks in two scenarios, in the first scenario, considering the probability distributions obtained from the historical data, there was a NPV of -$9,476.58 ± 156 with a 31.34% probability that the fleet is profitable, in the second scenario the variants of the daily effective hours were generated with the triangular distributi...