This study aims to evaluate the future of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Peru, using the Gompertz nonlinear regression model. The data were obtained from official reports of the Peru Ministry of Health (MINSA). The accumulated value of fatal cases was subjected to iterative analysis by the non-linear least-squares method to achieve a model. Given the first-order derivative of the predictive model was obtained the daily fatal cases curve. Using the fatality rate as the proportion between infected and fatal cases, both of them would also provide days average lag to estimate the epidemic curve. For the moment, the predictive model suggests that Peru would be in a slow descent in the epidemic curve, moving away from the peak of contagions per day. The trend of reaching about 550 thousand infected and 19 thousand deaths until the end of the year 2020. The predictions of the mathematical model...

Este estudio tiene como objetivo evaluar el futuro de los casos confirmados de Covid-19 en el Perú, utilizando el modelo de regresión no lineal de Gompertz. Los datos utilizados están basados en los informes oficiales del Ministerio de Salud del Perú (MINSA). El valor acumulado de casos fatales fue sometido a un análisis interactivo por el método de mínimos cuadrados no lineales para proyectar el modelo. A partir de la derivada de primer orden del modelo predictivo fue obtenido la curva de casos fatales diarios. Usando la tasa de letalidad como proporción entre infectados y casos fatales, además del desfase promedio de días entre estos, fue posible estimar la curva epidémica. Por el momento, el modelo predictivo sugiere que el Perú estaría en un descenso lento de la curva epidémica, distanciandose del pico de contagios por día. Asimismo, se observó una tendencia de alcanz...

The aim of this study was to develop a high acceptability mixed nectar and low cost. To obtain the nectar mixed considered different amounts of passion fruit, sweet pepino, sucrose, and completing 100% with water, following a two-stage design: screening (using a design of type 23 + 4 center points) and optimization (using a design of type 22 + 2*2 + 4 center points); stages that allow explore a high acceptability formulation. Then we used the technique of Linear Programming to minimize the cost of high acceptability nectar. Result of this process was obtained a mixed nectar optimal acceptability (score of 7), when the formulation is between 9 and 14% of passion fruit, 4 and 5% of sucrose, 73.5% of sweet pepino juice and filling with water to the 100%. Linear Programming possible reduced the cost of nectar mixed with optimal acceptability at S/.174 for a production of 1000 L/day.

The aim of this study was to develop a high acceptability mixed nectar and low cost. To obtain the nectar mixed considered different amounts of passion fruit, sweet pepino, sucrose, and completing 100% with water, following a two-stage design: screening (using a design of type 23 + 4 center points) and optimization (using a design of type 22 + 2*2 + 4 center points); stages that allow explore a high acceptability formulation. Then we used the technique of Linear Programming to minimize the cost of high acceptability nectar. Result of this process was obtained a mixed nectar optimal acceptability (score of 7), when the formulation is between 9 and 14% of passion fruit, 4 and 5% of sucrose, 73.5% of sweet pepino juice and filling with water to the 100%. Linear Programming possible reduced the cost of nectar mixed with optimal acceptability at S/.174 for a production of 1000 L/day.