El presente artículo aborda el siguiente problema ¿Cómo formular un escenario al año 2030 que sea realista y a la vez sea la base para una visión factible de cumplirse para el abastecimiento de gas natural al 2030?. Para la obtención de los resultados se aplicaron encuestas así como el método de la Prospectiva Estratégica, la cual incluye los métodos MICMAC, MACTOR y SMIC. Los principales resultados obtenidos fueron: las variables del eje estratégico, rol de actores y el escenario al 2030.

The purpose of this research study is to analyze quantitative operational risk according to the guidelines of the practice recommendation “Recommendations on Transmission and Distribution Practice” , published by The Institution of Gas Engineers of Great Britain and the PMBOK . Chapter 11 , Managing Project Risk . This study was conducted in the Trunk pipeline system operated by Cálidda the Peru - Natural Gas from the City Gate located in Lurín , to Callao Terminal Station . The purpose of this study was to determine the levels of individual risk and safety of the general public due to the operation of the pipeline that operates Cálidda Trunk . In cases where the individual or social risks are considered intolerable compared to international standards mitigation measures associated with the operation to levels that can be considered consistent with best industry practices recommen...

The purpose of this research study is to analyze quantitative operational risk according to the guidelines of the practice recommendation “Recommendations on Transmission and Distribution Practice” , published by The Institution of Gas Engineers of Great Britain and the PMBOK . Chapter 11 , Managing Project Risk . This study was conducted in the Trunk pipeline system operated by Cálidda the Peru - Natural Gas from the City Gate located in Lurín , to Callao Terminal Station . The purpose of this study was to determine the levels of individual risk and safety of the general public due to the operation of the pipeline that operates Cálidda Trunk . In cases where the individual or social risks are considered intolerable compared to international standards mitigation measures associated with the operation to levels that can be considered consistent with best industry practices recommen...

El presente artículo aborda el siguiente problema ¿Cómo formular un escenario al año 2030 que sea realista y a la vez sea la base para una visión factible de cumplirse para el abastecimiento de gas natural al 2030?. Para la obtención de los resultados se aplicaron encuestas así como el método de la Prospectiva Estratégica, la cual incluye los métodos MICMAC, MACTOR y SMIC. Los principales resultados obtenidos fueron: las variables del eje estratégico, rol de actores y el escenario al 2030.