Este trabajo busca identificar las posibles perturbaciones (shocks) que afectarían la cuenta corriente de la Argentina. A tal efecto, se analiza la transmisión de shocks y se explora su impacto sobre la inversión doméstica y la cuenta corriente, empleando para ello estimaciones econométricas y la técnica de los Vectores Autorregresivos (VAR). El análisis cubre el período 1977/97 (posterior a la Reforma Financiera). Se analizan dos tipos de shocks. Por un lado, los shocks de oferta, tal como los que surgen por cambios en la productividad total de los factores. Estos shocks pueden ser idiosincráticos o específicos del país, si se originaran domésticamente, o globales, si tuvieran su origen en las economías más desarrolladas y se transmitieran al resto de las economías del mundo o si afectaran a la mayoría de los países por igual. En este sentido, el trabajo trata de examin...

This  paper uses a  one-equation model proposed by Baífes, Elbadawi and O'Connell (1999) with the intention of  measuring the  degree  of  misalignment between the  observed  multilateral real  exchange and  its  estimated  level of  long run  equilibrium, in the Argentinean case. With that purpose, annual data covering the period 1970-2001 for the multilateral real exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables  are  used. The econometric model used is a  methodology alternative to  most recent estimatio- ns that use vector error correction (VEC) models, in a tradition established by Johansen (1988). Our estimations show  that  by the  end  of the  year  2001 the Argentinean currency was overvalued between 30% and 45% with respect to its equilibrium multilateral real  exchange rate, depending  on  whether  we use wholesale or consumer prices as the n...

The financial and exchange rate crisis observed in Argentine at the end of 2001 showed the importance of understanding the factors that explain the evolution of the balance of payments and, in particular, of the current account. The objective of this work is to show recent developments in the theory of the current account and its application to the Argentine case. In the first place, short and long term correlations between national saving and domestic investment is considered through a model of a mechanism of correction of errors. Later, the paper analyzes the main shocks that affect to the current account in agreement with different theories. Finally, the paper shows the intertemporary approach of the current account. In this case, the paper considers a standard version of this approach and a model that makes flexible some of its main basic assumptions.

Exports are one of the key aggregates in the Argentina’s economy, both because to its links with the domestic demand and by its influence on the behaviour of the trade balance and current account. Have adequate forecasts for this variable is useful to design policies to keep surpluses in the external sector and prevent recurring crises seen in the past. In this work, we considered some models for forecasting the performance of this aggregate, which could be an alternative to the estimation of structural econometric models. For this purpose, we used two approaches: the first is based instandard and Bayesian VARs (Minnesota prior, Gibbs sampler, partial BVAR and BVAR-Kalman). The latter combines the evidence in the data with any prior information that may also be available. Thesecond approach considers the FAVAR (Factor-augmented VAR) models, which combines the standard VAR with factor a...

This  paper uses a  one-equation model proposed by Baífes, Elbadawi and O'Connell (1999) with the intention of  measuring the  degree  of  misalignment between the  observed  multilateral real  exchange and  its  estimated  level of  long run  equilibrium, in the Argentinean case. With that purpose, annual data covering the period 1970-2001 for the multilateral real exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables  are  used. The econometric model used is a  methodology alternative to  most recent estimatio- ns that use vector error correction (VEC) models, in a tradition established by Johansen (1988). Our estimations show  that  by the  end  of the  year  2001 the Argentinean currency was overvalued between 30% and 45% with respect to its equilibrium multilateral real  exchange rate, depending  on  whether  we use wholesale or consumer prices as the n...

Exports are one of the key aggregates in the Argentina’s economy, both because to its links with thedomestic demand and by its influence on the behaviour of the trade balance and current account.Have adequate forecasts for this variable is useful to design policies to keep surpluses in the externalsector and prevent recurring crises seen in the past. In this work, we considered some modelsfor forecasting the performance of this aggregate, which could be an alternative to the estimationof structural econometric models. For this purpose, we used two approaches: the first is based instandard and Bayesian VARs (Minnesota prior, Gibbs sampler, partial BVAR and BVAR-Kalman). Thelatter combines the evidence in the data with any prior information that may also be available. Thesecond approach considers the FAVAR (Factor-augmented VAR) models, which combines the standardVAR with factor analysis...

Este trabajo busca identificar las posibles perturbaciones (shocks) que afectarían la cuenta corriente de la Argentina. A tal efecto, se analiza la transmisión de shocks y se explora su impacto sobre la inversión doméstica y la cuenta corriente, empleando para ello estimaciones econométricas y la técnica de los Vectores Autorregresivos (VAR). El análisis cubre el período 1977/97 (posterior a la Reforma Financiera). Se analizan dos tipos de shocks. Por un lado, los shocks de oferta, tal como los que surgen por cambios en la productividad total de los factores. Estos shocks pueden ser idiosincráticos o específicos del país, si se originaran domésticamente, o globales, si tuvieran su origen en las economías más desarrolladas y se transmitieran al resto de las economías del mundo o si afectaran a la mayoría de los países por igual. En este sentido, el trabajo trata de examin...

The financial and exchange rate crisis observed in Argentine at the end of 2001 showed the importance of understanding the factors that explain the evolution of the balance of payments and, in particular, of the current account. The objective of this work is to show recent developments in the theory of the current account and its application to the Argentine case. In the first place, short and long term correlations between national saving and domestic investment is considered through a model of a mechanism of correction of errors. Later, the paper analyzes the main shocks that affect to the current account in agreement with different theories. Finally, the paper shows the intertemporary approach of the current account. In this case, the paper considers a standard version of this approach and a model that makes flexible some of its main basic assumptions.

The turmoils occurred in East Asia in the 1990s have reminded the world of how rapidly and with what disruptive forte financial crises can erupt, and of how diflicult it is to foresee the timing and full ramitications of these dramatic events.In this way, the paper examines the financial system distress and crises in Argentina between 1977 and 1998 (post-Financial Reform period). The paper uses a vector error correction model developed by Johansen and the empirical results identify several adverse macroeconomic shocks that may explain financial crises.We find that financial crises tend to emerge with the following: a fallin real GDP growth, credit expansion, capital outflows, rising M2/intemational reserves ratio, a decline in the real exchange rate and adverse trade shocks. The paper also shows that a weak macroeconomic environment (low GDP growth) is significant in predicting financial...

The turmoils occurred in East Asia in the 1990s have reminded the world of how rapidly and with what disruptive forte financial crises can erupt, and of how diflicult it is to foresee the timing and full ramitications of these dramatic events. In this way, the paper examines the financial system distress and crises in Argentina between 1977 and 1998 (post-Financial Reform period). The paper uses a vector error correction model developed by Johansen and the empirical results identify several adverse macroeconomic shocks that may explain financial crises. We find that financial crises tend to emerge with the following: a fallin real GDP growth, credit expansion, capital outflows, rising M2/intemational reserves ratio, a decline in the real exchange rate and adverse trade shocks. The paper also shows that a weak macroeconomic environment (low GDP growth) is significant in predicting financi...

This  paper uses a  one-equation model proposed by Baífes, Elbadawi and O'Connell (1999) with the intention of  measuring the  degree  of  misalignment between the  observed  multilateral real  exchange and  its  estimated  level of  long run  equilibrium, in the Argentinean case. With that purpose, annual data covering the period 1970-2001 for the multilateral real exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables  are  used. The econometric model used is a  methodology alternative to  most recent estimatio- ns that use vector error correction (VEC) models, in a tradition established by Johansen (1988). Our estimations show  that  by the  end  of the  year  2001 the Argentinean currency was overvalued between 30% and 45% with respect to its equilibrium multilateral real  exchange rate, depending  on  whether  we use wholesale or consumer prices as the n...

Exports are one of the key aggregates in the Argentina’s economy, both because to its links with thedomestic demand and by its influence on the behaviour of the trade balance and current account.Have adequate forecasts for this variable is useful to design policies to keep surpluses in the externalsector and prevent recurring crises seen in the past. In this work, we considered some modelsfor forecasting the performance of this aggregate, which could be an alternative to the estimationof structural econometric models. For this purpose, we used two approaches: the first is based instandard and Bayesian VARs (Minnesota prior, Gibbs sampler, partial BVAR and BVAR-Kalman). Thelatter combines the evidence in the data with any prior information that may also be available. Thesecond approach considers the FAVAR (Factor-augmented VAR) models, which combines the standardVAR with factor analysis...

Este trabajo busca identificar las posibles perturbaciones (shocks) que afectarían la cuenta corriente de la Argentina. A tal efecto, se analiza la transmisión de shocks y se explora su impacto sobre la inversión doméstica y la cuenta corriente, empleando para ello estimaciones econométricas y la técnica de los Vectores Autorregresivos (VAR). El análisis cubre el período 1977/97 (posterior a la Reforma Financiera). Se analizan dos tipos de shocks. Por un lado, los shocks de oferta, tal como los que surgen por cambios en la productividad total de los factores. Estos shocks pueden ser idiosincráticos o específicos del país, si se originaran domésticamente, o globales, si tuvieran su origen en las economías más desarrolladas y se transmitieran al resto de las economías del mundo o si afectaran a la mayoría de los países por igual. En este sentido, el trabajo trata de examin...

The financial and exchange rate crisis observed in Argentine at the end of 2001 showed the importance of understanding the factors that explain the evolution of the balance of payments and, in particular, of the current account. The objective of this work is to show recent developments in the theory of the current account and its application to the Argentine case. In the first place, short and long term correlations between national saving and domestic investment is considered through a model of a mechanism of correction of errors. Later, the paper analyzes the main shocks that affect to the current account in agreement with different theories. Finally, the paper shows the intertemporary approach of the current account. In this case, the paper considers a standard version of this approach and a model that makes flexible some of its main basic assumptions.

The turmoils occurred in East Asia in the 1990s have reminded the world of how rapidly and with what disruptive forte financial crises can erupt, and of how diflicult it is to foresee the timing and full ramitications of these dramatic events.In this way, the paper examines the financial system distress and crises in Argentina between 1977 and 1998 (post-Financial Reform period). The paper uses a vector error correction model developed by Johansen and the empirical results identify several adverse macroeconomic shocks that may explain financial crises.We find that financial crises tend to emerge with the following: a fallin real GDP growth, credit expansion, capital outflows, rising M2/intemational reserves ratio, a decline in the real exchange rate and adverse trade shocks. The paper also shows that a weak macroeconomic environment (low GDP growth) is significant in predicting financial...