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1
artículo
Mathematical models are widely used to study the spreading dynamics of infectious diseases. In particular, the “Susceptibles-Infecteds-Recovereds-Deceases”(SIRD) model provides a framework that can be adapted to describe the core spreading dynamics of several human and wildlife infectious diseases. The present work uses a SIRD model using Caputo fractional derivative. In this investigation, the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the model were established. Numerical solutions were obtained using the Adams-Bashforth method. To illustrate the model’s utility, we made forecasts for the spread of the virus SARS-Cov-2 in the region of Tacna in Perú. It is well known that these models can help to forecast the number of infected people, understand the disease dynamics and evaluate potential control strategies.
2
artículo
In the present research, the epidemiological model SIRD was used to study the spreed of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Tacna Region. To determine the parameters of the model, the information published through social networks by the Regional Health Directorate of the Tacna Region of Peru was used, which was systematized in an EXCEL matrix and then exported to process the information in the System of Scientific Computing Mathematica. As a result, the graphs corresponding to the model referred to the Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased individuals from the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Tacna Region were obtained and then the graphs were interpreted in the time interval of the study. Keywords: COVID-19, SIRD epidemiologic model.