In this paper, we analyze what would be the main limiting our national institution. Initially described the global and national economic situation as a prelude to understanding the current global economic and social context in which we are immersed and outlook to face, highlighting the possible initiation of a global downward economic cycle the term of monetary policies conventional low interest rates close to zero, in the advanced countries. It is estimated that Peru will continue to be the country with higher growth and lower inflation in the region, no debt and high international reserves, enabling us to adequately address any overall negative external economic contingency. With regard to the factors limiting our national institutional development, are reviewed every one of them, identified as most important: finish building our national identity, improve educational quality, the worr...

This article reviews some aspects little studied by researchers and economists who are concerned with the different inter-relations of capital, value and work in an environment of constantly changing techno-scientific, rational use of natural resources and their influence on the process of transformation of the goods from occurring until it makes its unsecured sale, raising some arguments explaining how it is that in a dependent capitalist society like ours, and in fact can be are currently presenting and crises elsewhere and which are not shielded.

The aim of this article is to analyse the main factors of excessive prociclicidad of financial systems, due to increased unnecessary fluctuations in the level of activity which puts at risk the financial stability with a negative impact on the real economy of the countries. The normal real economic growth of a country goes in parallel with the growth of financial systems in general and with the growth of appropriations in particular, causing a logical and desirable prociclicidad very strong among these, always putting in evidence as the balances of payments National correspond as interdependent elements of a global monetary system zero-sum. The problem arises to the extent that there are factors inherent in the behaviour of economic agents acting within the financial systems or arising out of prudential regulation which increase volatility in abnormal form on their levels considered fund...

Las redes neuronales artificiales (RNA) se han convertido en un importante instrumento para modelar y predecir los rendimientos accionarios y por ende para evaluar la eficiencia del mercado de capitales (HEM). Debido a que son modelos que incorporan variables no lineales (característica de la mayoría de las series económicas y financieras) funcionan mejor que los modelos estadísticos tradicionales, como las regresiones lineales o modelos Box-Jenkins (Camino Aleatorio). Es este artículo se dan algunos alcances sobre investigaciones de verificación de las hipótesis de eficiencia de los mercados de capitales y las ventajas de la utilización de los modelos de redes neuronales artificiales (RNA), principalmente para la predicción de tendencias de precios.

The lack of inclusion within the current global economic growth model adopted by most countries, evidenced by the growing gap that is being generated between rich and poor, the capitalist-liberal economic model that privileges the market over all things, encourages the struggle for greater competition and financial transactions to discourage speculation of higher yields produce goods or provide services that are essential for life, where capitalism has become a plutocracy, an oligarchy that is where they are concentrated large amounts of money also hold political power worldwide. According institutions and researchers from prestigious indicate a boundless ambition than 1% of the world’s population does not hesitate to condemn the remaining 99% poverty, indicate that the 225 richest people in the world have a combined equity than annual income of the poorest 47% of the population, or ha...

It is undeniable that the globalization trend is irreversible. Today, access to economic development is unthinkable without being able to participate in global trade, especially trade with all countries and in all fields is possible and desirable. In this paper, we analyzes and propose some answers about the demand of 30% of the electorate in the recent Peruvian presidential elections who called for a “radical change”, despite substantial and sustained economic growth in the 10 years, with unprecedent progress in reducing poverty but modest reduction in income inequality. The analysis is reviewed within a general framework for globalization in which Peru is actively involved and we see the importance in this process of trade and integration in the market, consumption and credit. It is stressed the effect of the current “unregulated” global monetary system which encourages global ...

To study the performance and financial efficiency, which should be understood as the quality level achieved in the management on the part of managers of financial assets, measures are an absolute classic and consistency, in terms of profitability, adjusted appropriately by the total risk and systemic. There are also measures for evaluating selection and portfolio management in assessing the timing with the market. This article reviews the proposals of measures of performance of portfolio management or investment funds, beginning with the contributions of Gómez Bezares, Sharpe, Treynor, Jensen, Mazur, Henriksson, Ferruz, Sarto, Merton and Modigliani.

Los estudios de investigación recientes indican que la dificultad del modelado y la predicción de una serie temporal, radica en que ellas siguen generalmente, en los temas económicos y financieros, una dinámica lineal explicada por la teoría del caos en los cálculos y sus efectos paramétricos y la otra explicación es la existencia de una dinámica no lineal. Hablar de aleatoriedad, azar, caos, no es hablar de confusión ni desorden, sino que es el orden que subyace al aparente desorden. En los modelos lineales tradicionales, la utilización de herramientas estadísticas y econométricas presume que la serie de precios bursátiles son aleatorias y que no tienen memoria, así la mejor predicción del precio de mañana para un activo financiero es el precio de hoy. La realidad es que las series de precios no son aleatorias sino deterministas. Así mismo, en la búsqueda de nuevos mo...

The aim of this article is to analyse the main factors of excessive prociclicidad of financial systems, due to increased unnecessary fluctuations in the leve[ of activity which puts at risk the financial stability with a negative impact on the real economy of the countries.The normal real economic growth of a country goes in parallel with the growth of financial systems in general and with the growth of appropriations in particular, causing a logical and desirable prociclicidad very strong among these, always putting in evidence as the balances of payments National correspond as interdependent elements of a global monetary system zero-sum.The problem arises to the extent that there are factors inherent in the behaviour of economic agents acting within the financial systems or arising out of prudential regulation which increase volatility in abnormal form on their levels considered fundam...

Traditional and marked difference between the rich North and the poor countries of the south, from about 1990 is disappearing more and more. That marked divergence between the increasingly rich and getting poorer countries, which began with the industrial revolution and colonialism in the early nineteenth century, is being reversed by a new convergence.Today is producing a structural change in the dynamics of the global economy, this new addition to the fast convergence behavior of the rate of economic growth per capita in emerging and developing countries is higher than in developed countries and tends to homogenize the global per capita growth, but these countries have been able not unlink, strong cyclic correlation trend around and have not been able to isolate the effects of the increasing divergence in inequality in the distribution of income between rich and poor.The 85 richest peo...

This article discussed and revised opinions and conclusions that have been determined by researchers working at the IMF and as economists consider of vital importance for analysis and understanding, which states that we are witnessing a growth and global inflation persistently weak and uncertain, despite having taken a number of corrective measures after the 2008 crisis; also a decline of optimism seen, setting the pace for a new normal, which the IMF calls the “new mediocrity,” all this is causing an increase in macroeconomic risks so the IMF recommends that it is imperative that the doers public policy act more than ever jointly and cooperating, acting beyond the current stage set where monetary policies have been the major players so as to provide an environment of trust us out of this slowed normality and to promote a sustained global economic growth avoiding future crises.

En este ensayo, se analizan cuáles serían los principales limitantes de nuestro desarrollo institucional nacional. Inicialmente se describe la situación económica mundial y nacional, como un preámbulo para entender el actual contexto socio económico global en el que estamos inmersos y las perspectivas a enfrentar, destacando la posible iniciación de un ciclo económico decreciente global y el término de las políticas monetarias no convencionales con tasas de interés bajas cercanas a cero, de los países avanzados. Se estima, que el Perú, continuará siendo el país con mayor crecimiento y menor inflación de la región, sin deuda y con altas reservas internacionales, lo que nos permitirá enfrentar adecuadamente cualquier contingencia económica externa global negativa. En lo referente a los factores limitantes de nuestro desarrollo institucional nacional, se revisan cada uno ...

En este artículo se revisan algunos aspectos poco analizados por investigadores y economistas, tienen que ver con las diferentes interrelaciones del capital, el valor y el trabajo en un entorno de constantes cambios tecnocientífico, de racionalización en el uso de los recursos naturales y su influencia sobre el proceso de transformación de la mercancía, desde que se produce hasta que se realiza su venta no garantizada, planteando algunos argumentos explicativos de cómo es que en una sociedad capitalista dependiente como la nuestra, se pueden y de hecho se están actualmente presentando ya en otras latitudes las crisis y de las cuales no estamos blindados.

The aim of this article is to analyse the main factors of excessive prociclicidad of financial systems, due to increased unnecessary fluctuations in the level of activity which puts at risk the financial stability with a negative impact on the real economy of the countries. The normal real economic growth of a country goes in parallel with the growth of financial systems in general and with the growth of appropriations in particular, causing a logical and desirable prociclicidad very strong among these, always putting in evidence as the balances of payments National correspond as interdependent elements of a global monetary system zero-sum. The problem arises to the extent that there are factors inherent in the behaviour of economic agents acting within the financial systems or arising out of prudential regulation which increase volatility in abnormal form on their levels considered fund...

Las redes neuronales artificiales (RNA) se han convertido en un importante instrumento para modelar y predecir los rendimientos accionarios y por ende para evaluar la eficiencia del mercado de capitales (HEM). Debido a que son modelos que incorporan variables no lineales (característica de la mayoría de las series económicas y financieras) funcionan mejor que los modelos estadísticos tradicionales, como las regresiones lineales o modelos Box-Jenkins (Camino Aleatorio). Es este artículo se dan algunos alcances sobre investigaciones de verificación de las hipótesis de eficiencia de los mercados de capitales y las ventajas de la utilización de los modelos de redes neuronales artificiales (RNA), principalmente para la predicción de tendencias de precios.

The lack of inclusion within the current global economic growth model adopted by most countries, evidenced by the growing gap that is being generated between rich and poor, the capitalist-liberal economic model that privileges the market over all things, encourages the struggle for greater competition and financial transactions to discourage speculation of higher yields produce goods or provide services that are essential for life, where capitalism has become a plutocracy, an oligarchy that is where they are concentrated large amounts of money also hold political power worldwide. According institutions and researchers from prestigious indicate a boundless ambition than 1% of the world’s population does not hesitate to condemn the remaining 99% poverty, indicate that the 225 richest people in the world have a combined equity than annual income of the poorest 47% of the population, or ha...

It is undeniable that the globalization trend is irreversible. Today, access to economic development is unthinkable without being able to participate in global trade, especially trade with all countries and in all fields is possible and desirable. In this paper, we analyzes and propose some answers about the demand of 30% of the electorate in the recent Peruvian presidential elections who called for a “radical change”, despite substantial and sustained economic growth in the 10 years, with unprecedent progress in reducing poverty but modest reduction in income inequality. The analysis is reviewed within a general framework for globalization in which Peru is actively involved and we see the importance in this process of trade and integration in the market, consumption and credit. It is stressed the effect of the current “unregulated” global monetary system which encourages global ...

To study the performance and financial efficiency, which should be understood as the quality level achieved in the management on the part of managers of financial assets, measures are an absolute classic and consistency, in terms of profitability, adjusted appropriately by the total risk and systemic. There are also measures for evaluating selection and portfolio management in assessing the timing with the market. This article reviews the proposals of measures of performance of portfolio management or investment funds, beginning with the contributions of Gómez Bezares, Sharpe, Treynor, Jensen, Mazur, Henriksson, Ferruz, Sarto, Merton and Modigliani.

Los estudios de investigación recientes indican que la dificultad del modelado y la predicción de una serie temporal, radica en que ellas siguen generalmente, en los temas económicos y financieros, una dinámica lineal explicada por la teoría del caos en los cálculos y sus efectos paramétricos y la otra explicación es la existencia de una dinámica no lineal. Hablar de aleatoriedad, azar, caos, no es hablar de confusión ni desorden, sino que es el orden que subyace al aparente desorden. En los modelos lineales tradicionales, la utilización de herramientas estadísticas y econométricas presume que la serie de precios bursátiles son aleatorias y que no tienen memoria, así la mejor predicción del precio de mañana para un activo financiero es el precio de hoy. La realidad es que las series de precios no son aleatorias sino deterministas. Así mismo, en la búsqueda de nuevos mo...

El objetivo de este artículo es analizar los principales factores de la excesiva prociclicidad de los sistemas financieros, debido al incremento innecesario de las oscilaciones en el nivel de actividad, lo cual pone en riesgo la estabilidad financiera con repercusiones negativas en la economía real de los países.El normal crecimiento económico real de un país va en paralelo con el crecimiento de los sistemas financieros en general y con el crecimiento de los créditos en particular, ocasionando una prociclicidad lógica y deseable muy fuerte entre estos, siempre poniendo en evidencia cómo las balanzas de pagos nacionales se corresponden como elementos interdependientes de un sistema monetario global de suma cero.La problemática se plantea en la medida en que existen factores inherentes al comportamiento de los agentes económicos que actúan dentro de los sistemas financieros o qu...