External economic factors in the growth of the Peruvian economy: An autoregressive vector model (VAR)

• Autores: Chávez Lazo, Iraida Betty, Burgos Zavaleta, Víctor Fernando Jesús
• Formato: artículo
• Fecha de Publicación: 2021
• Institución: Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos
• Repositorio: Revistas - Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos
• Lenguaje: español
• OAI Identifier: oai:ojs.csi.unmsm:article/21628
• Enlace del recurso: https://revistasinvestigacion.unmsm.edu.pe/index.php/quipu/article/view/21628
• Nivel de acceso: acceso abierto
• Materia: external economic factors; gross domestic product; vector autoregressive; factores económicos externos; producto bruto interno; vector autorregresivo

Objective: Determine the effect of external economic factors on Peru's economic growth in the period 2000-2019. Method: The investigation has a descriptive and explanatory nature, with a non-experimental design. The data collection technique employed the documentary analysis and used a census type population, considering the Peruvian and global economy. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was estimated, from which a statistical and a structural analysis were developed. Results: It was found that the shock of the Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) reveals a growth in its participation (42,0%) on the growth of GDP in Peru in its 10th quarter. The shocks of the exchange terms registered an economic impact that fluctuates around 2,0% and the shocks of the country risk index have registered a slight increase, reaching 3,0% of the GDP variability of Peru. Conclusion: It was found that the variables considered as external factors, above all the China’s GDP, have repercussions, in one way or another, on the economic growth of the country.