Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic

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This paper focuses on the mathematical construction of a model that describes the statistical properties of a second wave of infections by Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19 in short) from the information of a first one. Basically this study is done having as grounds a topological model based at re...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Nieto-Chaupis, Huber
Formato: artículo
Fecha de Publicación:2021
Institución:Universidad Autónoma del Perú
Repositorio:AUTONOMA-Institucional
Lenguaje:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.autonoma.edu.pe:20.500.13067/1664
Enlace del recurso:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13067/1664
https://doi.org/10.1109/WorldS451998.2021.9514033
Nivel de acceso:acceso restringido
Materia:COVID-19
Surveillance
Stochastic processes
Predictive models
Probabilistic logic
Data models
Vaccines
https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.02.04
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spelling Nieto-Chaupis, Huber2022-02-25T01:14:21Z2022-02-25T01:14:21Z2021-08-19Nieto-Chaupis, H. (2021, July). Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic. In 2021 Fifth World Conference on Smart Trends in Systems Security and Sustainability (WorldS4) (pp. 260-265). IEEE.978-1-6654-0096-1https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13067/16642021 Fifth World Conference on Smart Trends in Systems Security and Sustainability (WorldS4)https://doi.org/10.1109/WorldS451998.2021.9514033This paper focuses on the mathematical construction of a model that describes the statistical properties of a second wave of infections by Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19 in short) from the information of a first one. Basically this study is done having as grounds a topological model based at rectangles. Thus, perimeters and distances between rectangles might be encompassed to a real data through valid approximations. A full trapezoid model is also proposed. The two-rectangles model appears that fits well to the Philippines covid-19 data. It is seen that while both rectangles are pretty separated, the the peak of second wave turns out to be high. From this an exponential formulation is derived, and fits well the exponential morphology as seen in Covid-19 data France.application/pdfengInstitute of Electrical and Electronics EngineersPEinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/AUTONOMA260265reponame:AUTONOMA-Institucionalinstname:Universidad Autónoma del Perúinstacron:AUTONOMACOVID-19SurveillanceStochastic processesPredictive modelsProbabilistic logicData modelsVaccineshttps://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.02.04Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemicinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85114477026&doi=10.1109%2fWorldS451998.2021.9514033&partnerID=LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-885http://repositorio.autonoma.edu.pe/bitstream/20.500.13067/1664/2/license.txt9243398ff393db1861c890baeaeee5f9MD52ORIGINALAnticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic.pdfAnticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic.pdfVer fuenteapplication/pdf99078http://repositorio.autonoma.edu.pe/bitstream/20.500.13067/1664/3/Anticipating%20Subsequent%20Waves%20from%20First%20Wave%20Parameters%20in%20the%20Ongoing%20Covid-19%20Pandemic.pdfa37dfdcb8146f1436f12a5a35e6a6aebMD53TEXTAnticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic.pdf.txtAnticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain590http://repositorio.autonoma.edu.pe/bitstream/20.500.13067/1664/4/Anticipating%20Subsequent%20Waves%20from%20First%20Wave%20Parameters%20in%20the%20Ongoing%20Covid-19%20Pandemic.pdf.txt8d0ad2acd3929e7793490ff027a93a7bMD54THUMBNAILAnticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic.pdf.jpgAnticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg5829http://repositorio.autonoma.edu.pe/bitstream/20.500.13067/1664/5/Anticipating%20Subsequent%20Waves%20from%20First%20Wave%20Parameters%20in%20the%20Ongoing%20Covid-19%20Pandemic.pdf.jpge02ee61c455a2767f07e32bb8962fbaeMD5520.500.13067/1664oai:repositorio.autonoma.edu.pe:20.500.13067/16642022-02-25 03:00:23.258Repositorio de la Universidad Autonoma del Perúrepositorio@autonoma.pe
dc.title.es_PE.fl_str_mv Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic
title Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic
spellingShingle Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic
Nieto-Chaupis, Huber
COVID-19
Surveillance
Stochastic processes
Predictive models
Probabilistic logic
Data models
Vaccines
https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.02.04
title_short Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic
title_full Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic
title_fullStr Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic
title_full_unstemmed Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic
title_sort Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic
author Nieto-Chaupis, Huber
author_facet Nieto-Chaupis, Huber
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Nieto-Chaupis, Huber
dc.subject.es_PE.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Surveillance
Stochastic processes
Predictive models
Probabilistic logic
Data models
Vaccines
topic COVID-19
Surveillance
Stochastic processes
Predictive models
Probabilistic logic
Data models
Vaccines
https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.02.04
dc.subject.ocde.es_PE.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#2.02.04
description This paper focuses on the mathematical construction of a model that describes the statistical properties of a second wave of infections by Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19 in short) from the information of a first one. Basically this study is done having as grounds a topological model based at rectangles. Thus, perimeters and distances between rectangles might be encompassed to a real data through valid approximations. A full trapezoid model is also proposed. The two-rectangles model appears that fits well to the Philippines covid-19 data. It is seen that while both rectangles are pretty separated, the the peak of second wave turns out to be high. From this an exponential formulation is derived, and fits well the exponential morphology as seen in Covid-19 data France.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2022-02-25T01:14:21Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2022-02-25T01:14:21Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2021-08-19
dc.type.es_PE.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.citation.es_PE.fl_str_mv Nieto-Chaupis, H. (2021, July). Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic. In 2021 Fifth World Conference on Smart Trends in Systems Security and Sustainability (WorldS4) (pp. 260-265). IEEE.
dc.identifier.isbn.none.fl_str_mv 978-1-6654-0096-1
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13067/1664
dc.identifier.journal.es_PE.fl_str_mv 2021 Fifth World Conference on Smart Trends in Systems Security and Sustainability (WorldS4)
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1109/WorldS451998.2021.9514033
identifier_str_mv Nieto-Chaupis, H. (2021, July). Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic. In 2021 Fifth World Conference on Smart Trends in Systems Security and Sustainability (WorldS4) (pp. 260-265). IEEE.
978-1-6654-0096-1
2021 Fifth World Conference on Smart Trends in Systems Security and Sustainability (WorldS4)
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13067/1664
https://doi.org/10.1109/WorldS451998.2021.9514033
dc.language.iso.es_PE.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
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dc.publisher.es_PE.fl_str_mv Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
dc.publisher.country.es_PE.fl_str_mv PE
dc.source.es_PE.fl_str_mv AUTONOMA
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:AUTONOMA-Institucional
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Anticipating Subsequent Waves from First Wave Parameters in the Ongoing Covid-19 Pandemic
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