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1
artículo
Publicado 2014
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The daily electric demand in Peruvian National Interconnected System-SEIN- has very particular trend, seasonality and characteristics external effects, a situation that complicates the process of estimating the short-term forecast. The aim of this paper is to formulate and calculate ARIMA models with External Events Analysis to achieve efficient forecasts of electricity demand each day, at total level and broken down by areas of the SEIN. The methodology is based on treating each time series using appropriate statistical-mathematical transformations to achieve stability in variance as regular seasonal averages, parallel external events to try to reach an optimal predictive model ARIMA each area of the electrical system of Peru (Central, South and North) and for each day of the week. The results demonstrate the predictive efficiency. Taking as a quality indicator forecast the Mean Absolut...
2
artículo
Publicado 2014
Enlace
Enlace
The daily electric demand in Peruvian National Interconnected System-SEIN- has very particular trend, seasonality and characteristics external effects, a situation that complicates the process of estimating the short-term forecast. The aim of this paper is to formulate and calculate ARIMA models with External Events Analysis to achieve efficient forecasts of electricity demand each day, at total level and broken down by areas of the SEIN. The methodology is based on treating each time series using appropriate statistical-mathematical transformations to achieve stability in variance as regular seasonal averages, parallel external events to try to reach an optimal predictive model ARIMA each area of the electrical system of Peru (Central, South and North) and for each day of the week. The results demonstrate the predictive efficiency. Taking as a quality indicator forecast the Mean Absolut...
3
artículo
Publicado 2014
Enlace
Enlace
La demanda diaria del Sistema Eléctrico Interconectado Nacional-SEIN, posee características muy peculiares de tendencia, estacionalidad y aleatoriedad, situación que complica al proceso de estimación de su pronóstico. El objetivo del presente trabajo consiste en formular y calcular modelos ARIMA con Análisis de Sucesos Externos, a fin de lograr pronósticos eficientes de la demanda eléctrica de cada día siguiente, a nivel total y desagregado por áreas. Un buen pronóstico de la demanda diaria garantiza el despecho eficiente y económico de generación y transmisión, así como el aseguramiento y calidad de la demanda sectorial nacional. El enfoque metodológico lo constituye el tratamiento de cada serie temporal objetivo, mediante transformaciones estadístico-matemáticas apropiadas para alcanzar estabilidad tanto en varianzas como en medias regulares y estacionales; paralelame...
4
artículo
Publicado 2021
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Academic self-efficacy is a powerful predictor of academic success, yet there are several factors that predispose it. Because of this, an explanatory model is proposed using the self-regulation of academic activities, positive affection, and personality. Hierarchical multiple linear regression was used to support the predictive proposal of the model. The Specific Perceived Self-Efficacy Scale of Academic Situations, The Scale of Positive and Negative Experience, Subscale Self-Regulation of Activities of the Academic Procrastination Scale, and Mini International Personality Item Pool (MINI-IPIP) were used. High correlations were obtained in the self-regulation of activities, positive affection, and personality (extraversion, concientousness and openness to experience) to academic self-efficacy. The final predictive model explained 30.1% of the total variance of academic self-efficacy. In ...
