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documento de trabajo
Publicado 2021
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The stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) model proposed by Koopman and Uspensky (2002) is revisited. This paper has two goals. The first is to offer a methodology that requires less computational time in simulations and estimates compared with others proposed in the literature as in Abanto-Valle et al. (2021) and others. To achieve the first goal, we propose to approximate the likelihood function of the SVM model applying Hidden Markov Models (HMM) machinery to make possible Bayesian inference in real-time. We sample from then posterior distribution of parameters with a multivariate Normal distribution with mean and variance given by the posterior mode and the inverse of the Hessian matrix evaluated at this posterior mode using importanc sampling (IS). The frequentist properties of estimators is anlyzed conducting a simulation study. The second goal is to provide empirical evidence estima...